Lakers vs. Nuggets predictions: Two best player props to bet for Game 1

The Western Conference Finals matchup is set, so we have a pair of Lakers vs. Nuggets predictions for Game 1.

I expect a fast-paced, exciting Western Conference Finals, especially in Game 1. With both teams fully rested, the playmakers on both sides will attack relentlessly for 48 minutes, trying to set the tone for the series.

So I’m looking to bet overs in the player prop market. I’m projecting big performances from Austin Reaves and Nikola Jokic in Game 1.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook, current at the time of writing and subject to change.

Austin Reaves over 22.5 points + rebounds + assists (-113)

Austin Reaves is legit good. He’s become the most important role player on the Lakers during this playoff run, even dating back to mid-March.

Among Laker players that have played over 10 minutes per game during this playoff run, Reaves has the highest Net Rating (9.3). In addition, he’s put together a 57.3% True Shooting with a 2.89 assist-to-turnover ratio while leveraging his 6-foot-5 frame on defense and the boards.

Darvin Ham realizes this, so he’s been playing Reaves more and more. Reaves recorded at least 34 minutes over the final three games of the Warriors series, including 39 in the closeout Game 6.

So, it was easy for Reavs to cash his props, as he eclipsed 22.5 PRA in all three games.

But Reaves has been doing this for months. Reaves averaged 15/5/4 over his final 20 regular-season games (from March 1 on) and is currently averaging 18/6/3 during this playoff run. He’s cashed over 22.5 PRA in 22 of his past 30 games.

Reaves was held under 20 PRA in three games against Denver this regular season, but all three games were before Jan. 1, when nobody realized Reaves was this good. So, if anything, Reaves is undervalued entering the Western Conference Finals.

I expect minutes and engagement from Reaves in this series in every part of the game. So do the projections, as our Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Reaves for 24.6 PRA in Game 1.

I’ll take that value and bank on Reaves in Game 1 (and maybe for the rest of the series).

» READ MORE: Lakers vs. Nuggets prediction: Jokic will be too much for L.A. in Game 1

Nikola Jokic over 1.5 3-point makes (+172)

If there is any big man in the NBA that can stop Nikola Jokic, it’s Anthony Davis. When Davis is playing to his potential, he’s arguably the best two-way forward in the game.

In Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals, you’d think that Davis would be locked in. If that’s the case, it’ll be a battle in the paint.

The key words: in the paint. Davis is not a perimeter defender, he’d rather protect the rim and post-ups.

But Jokic is such a versatile offensive player. He can do it all and will take what his defender gives him.

I expect Davis to give Jokic the perimeter shot in this series, and I expect Jokic to take it.

Jokic is a competent 3-point shooter. He shot 38.3% from 3 this season, only the third time in his career he shot over 38% from deep. Jokic has cashed over 1.5 3-point makes in six of the last 10 games, and he’s made at least one in three straight games against the Lakers.

From a pure numbers standpoint, getting over 1.5 3-point makes for Jokic at such a large plus-money number is excellent value. But considering the matchup, this line is an absolute steal.

If the Davis-Jokic matchup looks different in Game 1, we’d have to reconsider this angle. But for now, this is how I expect it to play out.

» READ MORE: Lakers vs. Nuggets prediction: Bet on a lengthy Western Conference finals

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.