Heat vs. Nuggets prediction: There’s a lot of value on Jamal Murray’s playmaking ability in Game 4

The Nuggets reinforced their dominance in Game 3, winning by 15 in South Florida and taking a 2-1 series lead in the NBA Finals.

Specifically, Denver received superstar production from Jamal Murray, who is quickly becoming the X-factor of these NBA Finals.

But, even more specifically, Murray’s playmaking has been the difference maker, opening up value on his assists prop, making it my favorite Heat vs. Nuggets player prop bet for Game 4 of the NBA Finals.

Odds are courtesy of Caesars, current as of publishing time and subject to change.

Murray’s playmaking has hit a new level. He’s recorded double-digit assists in all three NBA Finals games, and that might be underselling his production.

Per Joe Dellera of The Action Network, Murray is averaging 18 potential assists per game. Poor shooting by Michael Porter Jr. and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are hurting Murray’s brilliant passing.

And even if Porter and Caldwell-Pope continue to shoot poorly, Murray’s assist floor is so high because of the pick-and-roll combination with Nikola Jokic.

Per Michael Pina of The Ringer, Murray and Jokic have run an absurd 19.7 pick-and-rolls per game during this playoff run, scoring 1.26 points per possession.

And, thanks primarily to these sets, Murray has dished out 17 assists to Jokic alone during these NBA Finals.

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So, it’s pretty easy to see how this 7.5 assist number is very low. He’s bound to pick up five alone to Jokic, so he just needs Denver’s role players to make a few shots.

Brandon Anderson of The Action Network projects Murray for 9.7 assists in Game 4, so there’s still plenty of value on the number available at Caesars.

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