NBA MVP odds: 76ers’ Embiid once again surges ahead of Nuggets’ Jokic

Joel Embiid or Nikola Jokic?

Nikola Jokic or Joel Embiid?

The answer to that question as it pertains to the 2022-23 NBA MVP award depends on when it’s asked — and not just which day, but sometimes which hour.

At the moment, the answer is Embiid, as the Philadelphia 76ers’ center is once again positioned as the across-the-board, odds-on MVP betting favorite.

However, Embiid’s 76ers and Jokic’s Nuggets each have four games to play between now and Sunday’s end of the regular season.

Is that enough time for Jokic, the two-time reigning MVP, to leap-frog his rival center in what has been a months-long seesaw battle? Or has Embiid, who finished second to Jokic in MVP voting each of the past two seasons, done enough to lock up an award he desperately craves?

Here’s an updated look at NBA MVP odds, as well as the remaining opportunities for the top candidates to make their final case for voters.

Odds updated as of 11 a.m. ET on April 4.

A week ago at this time, Jokic had taken over as a slim favorite at multiple sportsbooks to win his third straight MVP. Specifically at BetMGM, he had +100 MVP odds, while Embiid was sitting at +120.

Now the award appears to be Embiid’s to lose.

In fact, if the 2022-23 NBA MVP contest was an actual marathon instead of a literal one, Embiid would be approaching mile-marker 26; Jokic would be about a half-mile back; and Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo would be nearing the completion of his 25th mile.

In other words, all Embiid needs to do to hit the tape first is not trip and fall coming down the stretch. Or hope that Jokic or Antetokounmpo don’t suddenly turn into Carl Lewis, circa 1984.

Heading into the final six days and four games of the regular season, Embiid is averaging a league-high 33 points per game. Either he or Dallas’ Luka Doncic (32.8 ppg) will win the scoring title.

Embiid, who has recorded 38 double-doubles, also ranks seventh in rebounds (10.2 per game) and sixth in blocked shots (1.7 per game). The third overall pick of the 2014 NBA Draft has topped 50 points twice; scored 40-plus points 12 times and racked up 43 games of 30-plus points.

He’s done all that in 64 games played while leading Philadelphia (51-27) to its fourth 50-win season in the last six years and sixth consecutive postseason appearance.

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So why hasn’t Embiid already wrapped up an award that many argue he should’ve gotten last year? Because Jokic and Antetokounmpo also have put up MVP-caliber numbers this season.

Start with Jokic. The 6-foot-11 Serbian not only leads the NBA with 29 triple-doubles — a whopping 17 more than any other player — but he’s nearly averaging a triple-double for the season.

Jokic is netting 24.9 points, 11.9 rebounds and 9.9 assists per contest — ranking second and fourth in the NBA in the latter two categories. He’s also second with 56 double-doubles and is shooting 63.4% from the field, 39% from 3-point land and 82.3% from the free-throw line.

Meanwhile, Antetokounmpo — who won back-to-back MVPs in 2018-19 and 2019-20 — ranks in the top five in scoring (31.1 ppg, 5th); rebounding 11.8 per game, 2nd); double-doubles (45, 4th); and made field goals per game (11.3, first).

Beyond that, both the Nuggets (Western) and Bucks (Eastern) have the best records in their respective conferences.

So at the moment, Embiid isn’t quite a slam dunk to win his first MVP. That said, giving the current MVP odds, you could say the 29-year-old from Cameroon has both hands on the ball and is driving unobstructed to the basket.

All three MVP candidates return to the court Tuesday after the NBA was dark on Monday.

Embiid is the only one playing at home, but he faces the most difficult challenge, as the 76ers host the Boston Celtics. Boston is second in the Eastern Conference, two games behind Milwaukee and three games ahead of Philadelphia.

Jokic and the Nuggets play at Washington, while Antetokounmpo leads the Bucks into Houston for a battle with the lowly Rockets.

If Embiid, who has gone a season-high four straight games without scoring 30 points, puts up big numbers against the Celtics, he likely will clinch the MVP no matter what his competitors do.

However, if Embiid struggles, the MVP door will open a smidge for either Jokic or Antetokounmpo to potentially squeeze through.

After Tuesday’s clash with Boston, the Sixers wrap the regular season with a home game against Miami (Thursday), followed by trips to Atlanta (Friday) and Brooklyn (Sunday).

Denver plays three straight road games at Houston, Phoenix (Thursday) and Utah (Saturday) before a season-ending home game against Sacramento (Sunday).

Antetokounmpo and the Bucks head home from Washington and face the Bulls (Wednesday) and Grizzlies (Friday) before closing out against Toronto (Sunday).

So each of the three main MVP candidates has one game remaining against a top-tier playoff foe, all at home: Embiid vs. Boston; Jokic vs. Sacramento; and Antetokounmpo against Memphis.

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BetMGM’s risk room would prefer to see The Greek Freak storm from the back of the pack this week and steal his third MVP. Short of that, BetMGM is rooting for Embiid to seal the deal.

That’s because as of Tuesday morning, 17.2% of all MVP wagers and a whopping 28.2% of all MVP dollars at BetMGM were on Jokic.

The Mavericks’ Doncic is second in tickets at 15.1%, followed by Embiid (13.8%), Celtics forward Jayson Tatum (8.7%) and Antetokounmpo (8.3%).

Embiid has pulled in the second-most cash among BetMGM customers at 18.7%. Doncic is third (14.9%), followed by Antetokounmpo (9.8%) and Tatum (7.3%).

Embiid and Doncic (both +500) opened the season as co-MVP favorites at BetMGM. Antetokounmpo (+700) and Jokic (+900) were the only other players with single-digit odds when the season tipped off in October.

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