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Joel Embiid isn’t among the NBA MVP favorites. What gives?

All-Star center is putting up career-best stats in multiple categories but is only fifth in the MVP race

Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid leads the NBA in scoring at 33 points per game and has tallied at least 28 points during his team's current five-game winning streak. (Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)
Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid leads the NBA in scoring at 33 points per game and has tallied at least 28 points during his team's current five-game winning streak. (Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)Read moreTimothy Nwachukwu / Getty Images

Through 21 games, Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid leads the NBA in scoring at 33 points per contest. He’s also averaging 4.6 assists and 1.2 steals, shooting 56.2% from the field and playing 35.9 minutes per game.

All are career highs.

Additionally, Embiid is pulling down a tick under 10 rebounds per outing, shooting 85.4% from the free-throw line, and his team is riding a season-best five-game winning streak.

And yet the former No. 1 overall pick is not favored to win the 2022-23 NBA MVP. Nor is he the second choice. Or the third or fourth.

In fact, Embiid’s NBA MVP odds are nearly double what they were when the season started — this for a guy who finished runner-up for the award the past two seasons.

What gives? We answer that question — as well as reveal Embiid’s primary competition and offer a couple of dark horse bets — in a pre-Christmas NBA MVP odds update.

Odds updated as of 3:15 p.m. on Dec. 20.

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NBA MVP odds

Player
Jayson Tatum
Current Odds (via BetMGM)
+275
Opening Odds
+1400
Player
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Current Odds (via BetMGM)
+300
Opening Odds
+700
Player
Luka Doncic
Current Odds (via BetMGM)
+350
Opening Odds
+500
Player
Nikola Jokic
Current Odds (via BetMGM)
+800
Opening Odds
+900
Player
Joel Embiid
Current Odds (via BetMGM)
+900
Opening Odds
+500
Player
Kevin Durant
Current Odds (via BetMGM)
+1600
Opening Odds
+1200
Player
Devin Booker
Current Odds (via BetMGM)
+2200
Opening Odds
+2000
Player
Zion Williamson
Current Odds (via BetMGM)
+2200
Opening Odds
+6600
Player
Ja Morant
Current Odds (via BetMGM)
+3000
Opening Odds
+1000
Player
Steph Curry
Current Odds (via BetMGM)
+3000
Opening Odds
+1400
Player
Donovan Mitchell
Current Odds (via BetMGM)
+3000
Opening Odds
+8000

As you can see, despite his incredibly impressive across-the-board numbers, Embiid is staring up at four players on BetMGM’s NBA MVP odds board: Boston’s Jayson Tatum, Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo (a former two-time MVP), Dallas’ Luka Doncic and Denver’s Nikola Jokic (the two-time defending MVP).

If gaudy stats and team success are the primary criteria for NBA MVP voters, then it makes sense that bettors and oddsmakers like Tatum, Antetokounmpo and Jokic.

» READ MORE: Data shows Eagles fans like betting at Lincoln Financial Field and around stadium complex

Tatum was the primary reason the Celtics bolted out to a 21-5 start. Even though Boston has cooled off considerably over the past 10 days — going 1-4, with consecutive home losses to the Orlando Magic — Tatum still sports strong numbers.

The former Duke standout is averaging 30.2 points, 8.2 rebounds and 4.1 assists while playing in 29 of his team’s 31 games.

Meanwhile, Antetokounmpo ranks fourth in scoring — two spots ahead of Tatum — at 31 points per game on 53.3% shooting. He’s also fifth in rebounding (11.1 per game) and dishing out 5.2 assists per contest.

And while the Celtics have been floundering, the Bucks are in the midst of a 10-3 run that has pushed them a half-game ahead of Boston in the Eastern Conference standings.

As for Jokic, he continues to make his case for the league’s best all-around player. The Nuggets’ center who beat out Embiid for the MVP honor the last two seasons is almost averaging a triple-double at 25.2 points, 10.9 rebounds and nine assists per game.

Interested in betting on Jokic to become the first to win three straight MVPs since Boston’s Larry Bird in the mid 1980s? Well … you probably should’ve placed that wager a week ago.

» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer

Can The Joker pull off an MVP three-peat?

Heading into Tuesday’s home game against Memphis, Jokic is averaging 34.4 points, 14.8 rebounds and 9.8 assists in his previous five games. He posted double-doubles in all five contests, two triple-doubles and two 40-point efforts.

Those monster numbers helped Denver win four of the games and improve to 18-11 on the season. They also sent Jokic skyrocketing up BetMGM’s NBA MVP odds board.

The 27-year-old Serbian has gone from the +2200 seventh choice as recently as a week ago to +800.

What about Doncic? The Mavericks’ star leads the NBA with six triple-doubles (one ahead of Jokic). However, his team is just 15-16 and tied for 10th in the Western Conference standings.

By comparison, the Nuggets are tied for second in the West, just one game behind Memphis going into Tuesday’s showdown with the Grizzlies.

Still, Doncic — who entered the season as the co-favorite with Embiid on the NBA MVP odds board — is among the top three favorites at BetMGM. He’s barely behind Tatum and Antetokounmpo, and well in front of Embiid.

In addition to leading the league in triple-doubles, the fifth-year pro is putting up a career-high 32.5 points per game (trailing only Embiid). And like Embiid, Doncic is on pace for career bests in shooting percentage (49.4) and minutes (36.3 per game).

He’s also piling up 8.3 rebounds and 8.6 assists per contest and shooting 34.8% from 3-point range — all right around his overall career numbers.

Not reflected in those sensational stats? How much action BetMGM has taken on Doncic to win the 2022-23 NBA MVP.

Tracking the NBA MVP action

While his team might be barely clinging to a playoff position, Doncic leads the way in both number of MVP bets placed and amount of money wagered at BetMGM.

As of Dec. 14, nearly 13% of all NBA MVP tickets were on Doncic, as was 15% of the handle.

Three players whose MVP odds currently sit at +2200 or longer at BetMGM are directly behind Doncic in ticket count: Memphis’ Ja Morant (12.1%, +3000 odds), Phoenix’s Devin Booker (10.2%, +2200) and New Orleans’ Zion Williamson (9.8%, +2200).

Embiid is fifth in bets (9.0%), followed by Tatum (7.6%) and Antetokounmpo (6.6%).

On the money side, Antetokounmpo (11.9%) slots behind Doncic. Tatum and Booker are tied for third (10.5%), just ahead of Morant (9.8%), Embiid (9.4%) and Williamson (9.2%).

Of course, we have yet to flip the calendar to 2023. Which means the NBA MVP race hasn’t even reached the backstretch (let alone the homestretch).

There will be much jockeying for position between now and early April — as Embiid, who was the MVP frontrunner at his time last season, knows all too well.

So which players further down BetMGM’s NBA MVP odds board offer some solid value? We like two in particular: Morant (+3000) and 2013-14 winner Kevin Durant (+1600).

NBA MVP long shots worth a long look

In Memphis’ last six games, Morant has two strong performances, two clunkers and two DNPs.

Still, the 2019 No. 2 overall pick is averaging 26.7 points, 7.7 assists and 6.7 rebounds per game for first-place Memphis. He’s also third behind Doncic and Jokic with three triple-doubles (to go with nine double-doubles).

If the Grizzlies keep winning and Morant makes it to the finish line healthy, he’ll push his way into MVP contention. (A late-season injury last year ended his candidacy, and he wound up seventh in the voting.)

As for Durant, he’s fifth in scoring at 30.4 points per contest, right between Antetokounmpo and Tatum. More importantly, he’s played in all but one of Brooklyn’s 31 games.

Also, the Nets are one of the NBA’s hottest teams, having won six straight games (which is part of a 10-1 run since Nov. 27).

If Brooklyn continues to inch up the Eastern Conference standings — the Nets are sitting fourth — you can be sure Durant will be the primary reason.

You can also be sure that Durant’s current double-digit odds will shrink considerably.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.