NBA Rookie of the Year prediction: The case to fade Victor Wembanyama in the ROY market

Now that the NBA draft is in the books, oddsmakers have set the market for NBA Rookie of the Year odds, and we have our prediction and pick, involving a fade of heavy favorite Victor Wembanyama.

That’s correct. I don’t believe Wembanyama will win this season’s ROY award, despite how juiced the betting lines are in his favor.

Wembanyama is called the best NBA prospect since LeBron James, but the immediate future is murky.

The market isn’t factoring that into the odds, and you can capitalize on that by backing another ROY candidate with solid plus-money odds.

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Wembanyama is 7-foot-4 and weighs 235 pounds. He’s lanky and couples it with an ultra-high center of gravity.

Taller, lankier players are more injury prone. Chet Holmgren was last season’s ROY favorite, and he suffered a season-ending injury before he played one game.

To qualify for the NBA ROY award, you have to play 65 games in a season. Wembanyama could fall short of that goal with one moderate injury.

That’s not a guy I want to lay -225 with.

Wembanyama will add strength and size, and I fully expect him to grow into his frame and capitalize on his potential. But that’s not going to happen in his first season.

Gregg Popovich and the San Antonio front office probably don’t expect that to happen either. Expect them to tread lightly with Wembanyama — the Spurs shouldn’t and won’t push his body, especially in a season where they’re not expected to contend.

The Spurs are a smart organization. They understand that Wembanyama’s long-term development is more important than anything, and they won’t risk major injury when he’s at his most delicate (i.e., his rookie year).

The Spurs should manage Wembanyama’s starts and minutes meticulously.

If you’re going to win a ROY award, you need to start a lot of games, play a lot of minutes and stuff the stat sheet. I don’t expect that from Wembanyama, no matter how high his long-term ceiling is.

So, which rookie will get minutes and stuff the stat sheet?

Henderson landed in Portland, where his role behind Damian Lillard remains unclear.

However, Henderson is too athletic, too good of a playmaker, and too active of a defender to ride the bench on a talent-devoid Trail Blazers squad.

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Henderson is fully NBA-ready. He reminds me of another NBA ROY, Derrick Rose, with his explosiveness, savvy ball-handling, shifty moves and scoring prowess. He’s solid in ball-screen actions and can run any offensive system you put him in.

Henderson deserves the minutes, and the Blazers don’t have to manage his load because he doesn’t profile to be all that injury prone.

If anything, Portland might give him the reigns and let him rock, especially if it starts to slip in the playoff race.

Henderson will record starts and stuff the stat sheet, something Wembanyama likely won’t do.

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