76ers vs. Heat prediction: Bet the under when these two Eastern Conference teams meet Thursday

The Sixers enter Thursday night’s contest with the Heat winners of three of their last four games, including a two-point home win against the Celtics on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the Heat have also won two straight contests to climb into seventh in the East with their most recent win coming in Detroit on Tuesday.

Thursday’s meeting sees the 76ers arrive as three-and-a-half-point home favorites with the total set at 219.5 points. Those interested in the Heat can take the points or +134 on the moneyline. Here’s our prediction for Thursday night’s Heat vs. Sixers game.

This shapes up as a solid contrarian under with the public taking the over while professional bettors are riding the under.

According to the Action Network PRO report, the betting percentage is 56% to 44% in favor of the over — suggesting recreational bettors are on the over — but the money percentage is more lopsided. As of this writing, the under has seen 98% of the total handle, an indication professional bettors are targeting that market.

Beyond that betting data, there’s a lot of logic suggesting this game will prove a low-scoring one Thursday in Philadelphia.

In two prior meetings between these two teams, the points average has come in at 207.5 points. In the only prior meeting in Philadelphia, it proved an absolute slog with the Heat capturing a 101-99 victory. Based on that result, it would appear there’s room to the under on an admittedly low total.

Those results are further indications of how these teams perform over the course of the entire season. Entering this game, both teams rank 10th or better in adjusted defensive rating — Philadelphia ranks eighth, Miami sits ninth, per dunksandthrees.com.

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Although both teams have proved a bit shaky of late on the defensive end — Philadelphia is 16th in defensive rating over the last 10 games while Miami is 25th, per NBA Advanced Stats — I’m willing to forgive those metrics given the low-scoring nature of this head-to-head.

Plus, this total bet essentially comes down to whether the Miami defense can hold the 76ers as they struggle immensely away from home. According to Team Rankings, the Heat rank dead-last in road points per game with only 106.9.

Across their last five road games, Miami has failed to surpass 100 points in a majority with their only two successes coming against the Pistons, who rank 28th in adjusted defensive rating.

At the same time, though, Miami has established themselves as one of the best road defenses in the league. Entering Thursday’s game, the Heat have allowed the second-fewest road points in the association.

Further, in their last three road games against top-five adjusted offensively-rated sides, the Heat have allowed only 102 points per game, including 99 to the 76ers.

For those reasons, follow the market move and back the under tonight.

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