Suns vs. Nuggets prediction: Jamal Murray eruption among two Denver player props for Tuesday

It’s Game 5 of the NBA Western Conference semifinals, and we have Suns vs. Nuggets predictions as we target the player props market.

Neither team has yet to lose on its home court as the Suns battled back from a 0-2 deficit to tie the series.

One of the concerns about this Suns team heading into the playoffs was a lack of depth. However, head coach Monty Williams might have found the right combination in Game 4 while showing more trust in his bench.

But now, with the Nuggets possibly getting some momentum back in their return to Ball Arena, I’ve got my sights set on a few Denver players to help me fill out my props card.

One of the benefits of the props market during the playoffs is that it allows you to take advantage of home-away splits. For example, the star players are likelier to show up no matter where the game is and still put up points. After all, that’s the very reason that they’re superstars.

But when it comes to the supporting cast, sometimes those players need a little push in the right direction. Playing in front of your home crowd tends to provide that lift, and I expect it’ll be the same for Caldwell-Pope.

In five home games during this postseason, Caldwell Pope is averaging 11.4 points. He’s covered this prop number in four games, and his lone miss was by two points.

» READ MORE: Two player props to target for Game 5 between the Sixers and Celtics

Nikola Jokic did the bulk of the heavy lifting for Denver in Game 4 with a 53-point effort. However, the Nuggets are at their best when they can spread the ball around to involve more players.

When you think about the possible adjustments that teams can make on a game-to-game basis, look for the Nuggets to get more contributions from other players, and Caldwell-Pope should be at the top of that list.

Murray is one player who can certainly heat up for the Nuggets. While we already highlighted the sensational performance Jokic gave the Nuggets in Game 4, Murray pitched in with 28 points on 13-of-25 shooting.

Since I don’t think the Nuggets can expect a similar performance from Jokic in Game 5, I like Murray in this spot to pick up the slack.

» READ MORE: Sixers vs. Celtics prediction: Bet on some James Harden regression in Game 5

What helps this prop is that this game will likely continue to be played with an up-tempo style. With Chris Paul still sidelined with a groin injury, Cameron Payne has taken the reins at the point guard position, and he’s not as deliberate as Paul with the ball in his hands.

To manage Paul’s absence, the Suns are forced to use more of their bench, which creates a greater need to get those players easier shots. Thus, if the Suns can get easier buckets in transition, they’re more likely to maintain a high efficiency on offense while not worrying so much about their bench players scoring in a half-court set.

This Suns’ adjustment — with Paul out — helps explain the high-scoring games when the series shifted to Phoenix.

More opportunities to score the basketball should help Murray exceed this combo prop. He’s gone over this number in three of the four games this series, and he’s done the same in all five playoff games at home.

By paying close attention to home-away splits, bettors can take advantage of this prop, which aligns with our situational spot for Game 5.

» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.