Suns vs. Nuggets: Target this same-game parlay for Game 2 Monday night

We have a Suns vs. Nuggets Game 2 prediction as Denver looks to take a commanding 2-0 lead in the series.

The Nuggets looked dominant in Game 1, outscoring the Suns 125-107 to win the series opener. It was a game in which the Suns shot 51.2% from the floor yet still lost by nearly 20 points.

Phoenix will have some tough decisions in this series, as it seemed almost reluctant to shoot from the perimeter. The Suns finished with just 23 3-point attempts, while the Nuggets shot 37 3-point attempts.

In this preview, we’ll dive deeper into the box score to see what assumptions we can make for Game 2.

Odds provided by FanDuel

Spread: PHX +4.5 (-110) vs. DEN -4.5 (-110)

Moneyline: PHX (+158) vs. DEN (-188)

Total: Over 227 (-110) | Under 227 (-110)

» READ MORE: 76ers vs. Celtics prediction: Can Philly keep it close in Game 1?

Things might’ve come a bit too easy for the Suns in the first round after they needed only five games to eliminate a Clippers team decimated by injuries.

Phoenix lost the series opener but then rallied to win four straight games. The Clippers’ Paul George was ruled out for the entire series, while Kawhi Leonard was shut down after Game 2 after suffering a torn meniscus in his right knee.

But even with both star players sidelined, the Clippers still made the Suns earn it, as Phoenix won two of the four games in the series by six or fewer points.

» READ MORE: Back these two player props ahead of Celtics-76ers Game 1 matchup

According to NBA.com, the Suns averaged the fewest 3-point attempts of any team (23.6 per game) during the first round. But in the regular season, they finished 17th with an average of 32.6 attempts.

While Phoenix might’ve gotten away with deprioritizing the perimeter shot in the first round, that strategy won’t work in this series against the Nuggets.

Denver had the fourth-highest 3-point shooting percentage (37.9%) during the regular season despite ranking 25th with only 31.2 attempts. Now we’re seeing the Nuggets up their volume in the playoffs to 33.2 3-point attempts per game.

If the Suns continue to opt for efficiency with their midrange shooting, it’ll be an uphill battle to make up any ground against the Nuggets in this series.

Phoenix forward Kevin Durant led his team with 29 points in the game. However, the Nuggets pestered Durant, rotating over different players including Christian Braun and Bruce Brown.

Even as reserve players coming off the bench, Braun and Brown combined to force five of Durant’s seven turnovers.

Another thing worth noting is that Phoenix attempted 17 fewer shots overall than Denver. Much of that is down to the Nuggets doubling up the Suns in offensive rebounds (16-8) while finishing with a 49-38 rebounding edge.

» READ MORE: Falcons RB Bijan Robinson is favored to win Offensive Rookie of the Year after NFL Draft

Perhaps the most telling sound bite came after the game when Denver’s two-time MVP Nikola Jokic said the team is just trying to follow its point guard Jamal Murray.

Murray led all scorers with 34 points, and is averaging eight more points during the playoffs than in the regular season.

With Murray picking up his production, Jokic doesn’t have to put the team entirely on his shoulders. Instead, he can play closer to the basket and be a dominant rebounding force inside the paint.

We saw Jokic rack up 19 rebounds (eight offensive) in the game, while his counterpart on the Suns, Deandre Ayton, finished with just seven. Moreover, Durant was the one who led the Suns with 14 rebounds; he averaged 6.7 per game this season.

While Durant will undoubtedly be able to put up points, the more he has to work on both ends of the court, the more the Nuggets will likely benefit.

I suspect we’ll gradually start to see the Suns play faster, but it might not be until Game 3 before they get even more aggressive with their adjustments.

Thus, to get even more value, I recommend taking advantage of the alternate markets and targeting a same-game parlay (+130) that combines the Nuggets at -0.5 (-200) with the game going over 222.5 points (-172).

» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.