Warriors vs. Lakers prediction: With Anthony Davis expected to play, count on the Lakers to move on

The Los Angeles Lakers have yet to lose consecutive games in these playoffs. Nor have they lost any of their first six postseason home games.

The Golden State Warriors, meanwhile, haven’t lost a playoff series to a Western Conference opponent in nine years.

Welcome to the “something’s gotta give” point of this best-of-7 rivalry series, which resumes Friday in Los Angeles with the Lakers holding a 3-2 lead.

Here’s how we’re attacking the pressure-packed Game 6 matchup from a wagering perspective.

Odds updated as of 10:30 a.m. ET on May 12.

The biggest question heading into Friday’s game appears to have been answered: Lakers star Anthony Davis is expected to play after suffering a head injury in his team’s 121-106 loss in Golden State on Wednesday.

Davis took an inadvertent elbow to the temple in the fourth quarter, left the court (reportedly in a wheelchair) and didn’t return. He finished the game with 23 points and nine rebounds in 32 minutes.

Upon medical examination, it was determined that Davis did not suffer a concussion and thus would not be subject to the league’s concussion protocol.

That’s a huge deal, because players who enter the protocol aren’t permitted to return to the court for at least 48 hours after first sustaining a head injury — which means Davis’ Game 6 availability would’ve been in serious jeopardy.

That would’ve been crushing to Los Angeles, which won three of the first four games of this series in large part thanks to Davis.

» READ MORE: Knicks vs. Heat prediction: We’re banking on Miami moving on to Eastern Conference final

If the Lakers are to close out the defending champs Friday, they not only will need the 2012 No. 1 overall pick to be on the floor in Game 6 but be the dominant force he’s capable of being.

Call us crazy, but we believe the uber-talented but oft-injured Davis will show up and show out Friday night.

And by “show out” we mean post a double-double, which Davis has done in all three of his team’s wins in this series (average of 26 points and 14.7 rebounds) and hasn’t done in the two losses (average of 17 points and 7.5 rebounds).

Even with LeBron James on the court — and playing at an elite level — Davis is the Lakers’ ace in the hole. Because the versatile 6-foot-10 forward/center is a matchup nightmare for the undersized, perimeter-oriented Warriors.

That is, when Davis brings his “A” game on both ends of the floor, which includes staying out of foul trouble.

That latter part is key, because while Davis had a decent statistical outing Wednesday, he picked up four fouls. Those fouls didn’t impact Davis in terms of minutes played but they did hamper his aggressiveness.

And when Davis has to dial back his aggressiveness to avoid picking up fouls, Golden State is allowed to play its game and play it effectively.

» READ MORE: Sixers head to Boston for Game 7 as big betting underdogs vs. Celtics

Obviously, it’s difficult to handicap foul trouble. But with Game 6 in L.A., we’re betting that Davis (and his teammates) get the benefit of the officials’ whistles.

While we’re on the topic of where Game 6 is being played, it’s important to note that the Lakers are a perfect 6-for-6 at home in the playoffs (including a play-in game win over Minnesota).

They also have covered the spread in five straight home games since coming up short as an 8-point favorite in their overtime victory over the Timberwolves.

Go back to the regular season, and L.A. has won eight in a row and 11 of 12 at home. And each victory was by at least six points.

The home team also has won 10 of the last 12 meetings in this rivalry dating to last season. The only exceptions: The Lakers traveled north to the Bay Area and won 109-103 as a 5.5-point underdog on Feb. 11 and 117-112 as a 4.5-point underdog in Game 1 of this series.

Yes, the Warriors won twice in Sacramento in the opening round, including Game 7. But that was against a Kings squad with absolutely zero playoff experience.

Even with those wins, Golden State is still just 13-34 SU and 14-33 ATS on the road this season — including 0-4 SU and ATS when visiting the Lakers.

So even while recognizing how much heart the Warriors have and the fact that they are 8-2 in elimination games under coach Steve Kerr, we’re backing a home team that has successfully bounced back from each of its four playoff losses.

And we’re doing so at a very reasonable price.

» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer

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