How we’re betting New Zealand vs. Norway in World Cup opener Thursday

The 2023 Women’s World Cup gets underway in the wee hours of Thursday morning (3 a.m. ET) as co-hosts New Zealand take on Norway at Eden Park in Auckland, New Zealand.

This is New Zealand’s sixth trip to the World Cup, but they’re winless in 15 total matches and have never made it out of the group stages. The odds suggest that trend will continue as Norway, which won the 1995 Women’s World Cup, is -360 favorites on the three-way money line. New Zealand, meanwhile, is +900 to win the match and a draw is currently sitting at +475.

Is the betting market correct in predicting one-way traffic for the Grasshoppers? Or will the Football Ferns pull off a stunner in front of a raucous crowd in the City of Sails?

Group A sets up in a pretty straightforward manner. Norway is the odds-on favorite to top the table at -300 and the Philippines is -3500 to finish at the bottom, but the bookies are having a hard time separating the two teams in the middle: Switzerland and New Zealand.

The Swiss are slight favorites to advance ahead of the co-hosts, but the difference in the futures market is marginal. Switzerland did catch a break, however, in the fact that they get to open the tournament with a match against the Philippines, while New Zealand will have to face the strongest team in the set and will likely be playing catch-up after Round 1.

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As with a lot of underdogs in international soccer tournaments, the most logical path to success for New Zealand will be through defensive solidity. The Football Ferns will likely struggle to create scoring chances with any consistency, but they can lean on an experienced backline to keep them competitive against stronger teams in this tournament.

That backline, which will be commanded by Ali Riley and Ria Percival, will have its hands full with former Ballon d’Or winner Ada Hegerberg.

Hegerberg’s presence will present all sorts of challenges for the Football Ferns, but there are some signals that point to New Zealand being able to hang around in this contest.

For one thing, Norway’s results have been all over the map during the last two years. The Grasshoppers were crushed by England and lost to Austria en route to an early exit from the 2022 Euros and then followed that up with just two wins (against Uruguay and Portugal) from six matches in 2023.

There’s also tactical reasons to believe that Norway could struggle to create much of a spark against New Zealand. The Grasshoppers prefer to attack quickly and get through defensive lines with direct attacking play, but that becomes a lot stickier when a team plays compact and sits deep like we expect New Zealand to do. A rigid, conservative setup from the co-hosts will limit the space in behind for Norway’s attackers to exploit.

Finally, there is something to be said about home-field advantage at a tournament like the World Cup, especially in the opening match. This is a crowning moment in sport in New Zealand and the crowd should be buoyant from kick to the final whistle.

Norway is clearly the more talented team and should prove to be too much for New Zealand, but there’s enough in this match to be intrigued by a play on the underdog. With the crowd behind them and some tactical advantages, the Football Ferns should be able to keep this match close enough to have a chance to steal three points and send their home country into a frenzy.

The Bet: New Zealand +900

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