How to bet Dak Prescott’s interception total this NFL season

Dak Prescott had a strange 2022-23 season.

On the one hand, he was a top-10 quarterback by EPA per play, completed over 66% of his passes, and threw for over 2,800 yards and 23 touchdowns in only 12 starts. The Cowboys won 12 games, and Prescott led his team to their fourth playoff appearance in seven seasons.

On the other hand, he was 29th in Pro Football Focus’s Passing Grades and 14th in Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement.

The culprit? Turnovers.

Prescott threw a league-leading 15 interceptions last year despite missing five games due to injury. He then threw two more in his lone playoff game. Prescott had been turnover prone at times, but he was largely fine in his first five years in the league (50 interceptions across six seasons).

So, was last year an anomaly? Or is it something we need to pay attention to?

DraftKings Sportsbook has set Prescott’s interception over/under at 13.5 for 2023.

Surprisingly, Prescott’s poor decisions did not come from his offensive line.

The Cowboys had an average offensive line by Pro Football Focus’s metrics last year. They did allow the third-lowest adjusted sack rate in the league (4.7%), but that’s likely thanks to Prescott’s athleticism and elusiveness.

None of that matters.

Prescott had 17 total interceptions and 20 total Turnover Worthy Plays (TWPs) last season, but the majority weren’t because he was rushed.

(Data from Pro Football Focus)

Instead, Prescott was making bone-headed decisions.

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You could look at this in a negative light, wherein Prescott made more mistakes than before.

Or, you could look at this in a positive light. The Cowboys’ offensive line is in flux, as there are only two for-sure starters on the roster right now. But that likely doesn’t indicate how Prescott will perform moving forward.

If the turnover increase isn’t because of external factors, don’t be surprised to see positive turnover regression for Prescott. His career interception rate is only 2%.

Some of Prescott’s interceptions weren’t his fault. Here are a few examples we can blame on the wide receivers:

Prescott was a tad unlucky last season, and we’ll likely see that flip in 2023.

Two tangential factors greatly impact this handicap.

First, the injury bug.

Prescott hasn’t played a full season since 2019. If he misses time again, hitting this mark will become difficult.

Second, Kellen Moore’s departure from the team.

Head coach Mike McCarthy has discussed Moore’s departure, citing “philosophical differences.”

Per Athlon Sports, McCarthy “wants to ‘run the damn ball so I can rest my defense.’”

That’s huge. We should expect fewer pass attempts from Prescott overall as the Cowboys attempt to lean heavily on Tony Pollard (and maybe Ronald Jones II).

Between the projected turnover regression, potential injuries and change in coaching philosophy, it’s difficult to see how Prescott continues down this turnover-prone road.

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