NFL MVP 2023 odds: Is Jalen Hurts undervalued with the fifth best odds in market?

We’re less than 100 days from the start of the NFL season, and sportsbooks are opening up more and more betting markets, including NFL MVP 2023 Odds.

Who are the favorites? And does Philadelphia’s own Jalen Hurts have any value in this market?

There’s a trio of AFC quarterbacks atop the MVP betting odds, as Josh Allen (+700), Joe Burrow (+700) and Patrick Mahomes (+700) are tied with the shortest odds to win the award.

You could argue for any of these guys to win MVP this season. However, I don’t see value in any of them at the current number and would rather look further down the odds boards.

Justin Herbert (+900) is interesting at the slightly higher price. Replacing Joe Lombardi with Kellen Moore as offensive coordinator is arguably the biggest coaching upgrade any team made this offseason, which could elevate Herbert’s play to league-best.

Jalen Hurts (+1200) has the fifth-shortest odds in the MVP betting markets, sitting behind the top four favorites and just ahead of Lamar Jackson (+1500) and Aaron Rodgers (+1600).

Hurts finished runner-up in the MVP voting last season behind Mahomes, so it’s surprising to see him drop slightly in the odds.

However, the Eagles did have some shake-ups in the offseason that could affect Hurts next season.

For example, offensive coordinator Shane Steichen took the Indianapolis Colts’ job, so the Eagles are replacing him by promoting quarterbacks coach Brian Johnson. While Hurts will now receive play calls from his former position coach, the shake-up could prove significant.

There was some turnover, but the Eagles retained almost all their talent for the most part – specifically on the offensive end, which will affect Hurts the most.

The Eagles retained Hurts’ top-three pass catchers (A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert) and four top-15 offensive linemen (Jordan Mailata, Landon Dickerson, Jason Kelce, Lane Johnson).

Although the Eagles replaced Quez Watkins with Olamide Zaccheaus, that slight downgrade is offset by adding D’Andre Swift to the backfield.

Swift is one of the league’s premier pass-catching running backs, and his presence could make the Philadelphia offense even more dynamic (which seems impossible, given how dangerous and dynamic it was last season).

If that’s the case, I fully believe there’s value in Hurts’ MVP odds, especially when we’re getting odds north of 10-to-1.

As long as Johnson is competent as the offensive coordinator, I only see Hurts and this offense improving in the upcoming season with the same offensive line and skill-position upgrades.

Meanwhile, you could poke holes in the other top-three MVP cases.

Allen’s offense broke down during the playoffs last season, Burrow still doesn’t have an offensive line, and Mahomes is dealing with continuous turnover at the wide receiver position.

For what it’s worth, Hurts finished last season fourth in Pro Football Focus’s offensive grades, 10th in Football Outsiders’s Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement, and fifth in EPA per play.

However, I also think Hurts could see more improvement with another year in the league (remember, he’s only entering his third season). He also has the most support of any top MVP candidate, even if he’s seeing a replacement at offensive coordinator (although promoting Johnson means he still has continuity).

I think Hurts has the most upside of any NFL quarterback, and I’m willing to bet on that in the NFL MVP market.

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