Buy low on Eagles QB Jalen Hurts to win the 2024 NFL MVP

The end of the 2023 season was an unmitigated disaster for the Eagles, who lost six of their last seven games, including a spectacular collapse in a 32-9 playoff loss to Tampa Bay.

One week from the opening of training camp, their stock couldn’t be much lower, which sets up a potentially inviting buy-low opportunity for bettors.

The Eagles spent the offseason addressing their most significant weaknesses, especially by bringing in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio.

The Moore hire could be crucial for quarterback Jalen Hurts, who never seemed to be on the same page with play-caller Brian Johnson last season.

Let’s take a look at the top odds to win the league’s MVP award this season and make a case for Hurts to win it this coming season.

A former quarterback for the Lions and Cowboys, Moore has since been the offensive coordinator for the Cowboys and Chargers. Now with his third team in that role, Moore has proven willing to adapt his scheme to accentuate his players’ strengths. His offenses have been top-six in scoring in three of his five seasons as a coordinator.

Last season went by the wayside with the Chargers, as Moore’s offense ranked just 25th in scoring with 20.4 points per game, but I’m inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt amidst a slew of injuries, poor offensive line play and controversy as head coach Brandon Staley was fired.

Moore will implement a faster, more pass-heavy offense than what we saw in Philadelphia last season. The Eagles ranked 19th in dropback rate over expectation last year, while Moore’s Chargers offense ranked fifth. The Eagles also ranked 20th in plays per minute over expected, per FantasyLife, while the Chargers ranked first.

We can also expect much more multiplicity, disguised formations and motion in Philadelphia. The Eagles ranked just 29th in motion rate in 2023, while the Chargers ranked second. Moore’s offenses have always relied on putting defenders in conflict with disguises and pre-snap movement.

One of the Eagles’ most significant offensive issues last season was their inability to handle a blitz. Hurts was blitzed at a 40.5% rate, the highest in the NFL among 42 qualified passers, per Pro Football Focus. He ranked just 28th in that sample in passer rating against the blitz, finishing with nine touchdowns to eight interceptions.

Hurts has shown some mechanical flaws when under pressure, and he sometimes abandons the pocket too early. However, Moore is well-equipped to minimize those weaknesses in the quarterback’s profile with a quick-fire passing game and pre-snap motion to counter the blitz.

» READ MORE: Eagles open with eighth-best 2025 Super Bowl odds

The Eagles took a hit this offseason with the retirement of longtime center Jason Kelce. However, their front office has been preparing for that eventuality. Cam Jurgens, the team’s second-round pick in 2022, was hand-picked as Kelce’s successor, with the future Hall of Famer offering his stamp of approval. Jurgens played 713 snaps at guard last season.

Veteran right tackle Lane Johnson is back for another season, and after a year somewhat mired by injuries, a healthier campaign could be in store. With Jordan Mailata, Landon Dickerson and Tyler Steen returning, the Eagles should maintain an elite offensive line after ranking in the top three in pass and run-blocking last season, per PFF.

The Eagles bring back A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, one of the best wide receiver duos in the NFL, and the free agency addition of Saquon Barkley could pay dividends if the dynamic running back can stay healthy. This is by far the best offensive situation Barkley has played in, and he’ll benefit from Moore’s diverse rushing attack. He ranked fourth in a recent ESPN survey of the best running backs in the NFL.

As the Eagles collapsed at the end of last season, nobody was safe from the scorn of the public media. Hurts’ approval rating took the biggest nosedive. Such is life in the NFL.

However, the quarterback’s decline is overblown. He fell from third in EPA+CPOE in 2022 to sixth last year, and his overall PFF grade dropped from fourth to sixth in the regular season. If Hurts hadn’t missed two games at the end of 2022, he likely would have won the MVP (he was the favorite to win the award before his injury).

After I spent the second half of last season fading the Eagles, I’m looking to take advantage of their depressed value. That extends to Hurts, whose MVP odds look very appealing at the current +1600 offered at DraftKings.

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