Could Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson be worth a flier to lead NFL in receiving yards?

There are a lot of good wide receivers in the NFL. We may be in the heyday of wide receivers.

Last year, 22 wide receivers hit the 1000-yard mark. Three hit the 1500-yard mark, with Justin Jefferson’s 1,809-yard, eight-touchdown performance taking the cake.

Surprisingly, Jefferson is not the favorite to lead the NFL in receiving yards this upcoming season. At FanDuel Sportsbook, Jefferson is given the fifth-shortest odds (+1100).

Instead, Ja’Marr Chase is atop the odds boards (+700), with Travis Kelce (+750), Cooper Kupp (+1000) and Davante Adams (+1000) directly behind him.

A.J. Brown (+1200), Stefon Diggs (+1200) and Tyreek Hill (+1200) are also among the favorites.

Let’s look at the full odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook.

I rarely bet on the favorites in these types of markets. There’s always better value down the odds boards, and it’s hard to repeat identical production levels in the NFL.

If I were to bet on a receiver toward the top of the odds boards, I’d take either Jefferson (+500) or Hill (+1000).

Jefferson’s projections (158 targets, 109 targets, 1487 yards) are much higher than any other receiver, making it impossible to look elsewhere.

Meanwhile, Hill should benefit from a fully-healthy Tua Tagovailoa season, granted that happens (it’s a big “if”).

But, looking down the odds boards, two receivers stand out to me.

First is Garrett Wilson, listed at +2000 to lead the league in receiving yards.

Wilson was targeted 147 times last season, catching 83 of those targets for a highly-productive 1103 yards.

But Wilson was unlucky.

The guys throwing him those targets were Zach Wilson, Mike White and Chris Streveler.

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Wilson was the most inaccurate quarterback in the NFL last year. FTN graded 18.6% of his throws as “inaccurate” last season, while no other starting quarterback was over 15%.

Per Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analysis, 19% of (Zach) Wilson’s throws to (Garrett) Wilson were graded uncatchable.

Wilson received the most targets of any rookie receiver in the last 15 years but got screwed because of the guys throwing to him. His catch rate last season was only 56.5%, the second-lowest mark among 1,000-yard receivers.

Wilson provides a lot of upside now that Aaron Rodgers is the quarterback in Green Bay. Wilson could explode in the upcoming season with accurate throws and catchable passes.

The second receiver I’m targeting in this market is Calvin Ridley.

It seems the world has forgotten about Ridley following his one-year gambling suspension, but this guy exploded for 1,374 yards in 2020 with the Falcons. He commanded over a 25% target share in 2020 and 2021, even with Julio Jones still hanging around in Atlanta.

He’s now had a year of rest and will be paired with up-and-coming quarterback Trevor Lawrence.

Lawrence is a generational quarterback prospect who had a good season last year but is due for a huge breakout year in his third season.

Meanwhile, there aren’t a lot of pass-catching options in Jacksonville. Lawrence was working with Christian Kirk, Evan Engram and Zay Jones.

Ridley is as close to a superstar, No. 1 receiver as Lawrence will get.

But Lawrence’s pure talent and uncapped ceiling could help Ridley achieve his maximum potential. Tom Brady did that for his receivers in New England.

That’s what I’m betting on in 2023. At 40-to-1, I think it’s worth a flier.

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The NFL Receiving Yards Leaders to Bet:

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