Why the Atlanta Falcons are worthy of your future bet consideration ahead of the 2023 NFL season.

I’m making my preseason NFL predictions and there are a few teams I’m high on.

I like the Bears a lot. The Seahawks should win the NFC West. Watch out for Mike Vrabel’s Titans in the AFC South.

However, I might be highest on the Atlanta Falcons.

The Falcons won seven games in 2021 and seven in 2022, but those teams were vastly different.

The 2021 Falcons went 7-2 in one-score games but were blown out by any talented team. Those Falcons were 30th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric.

The 2022 Falcons were competitive week despite a non-existent passing game, lousy defense and horrendous luck. Those Falcons finished 20th in DVOA, including 13th in Offense DVOA. Those Falcons were well-coached and played hard despite being hamstrung at every corner.

These Falcons are trending up, and the 2023 version will be the best iteration of the team in a half-decade.

Let’s start with the tough luck. The Falcons went 4-8 in one-score games last year. They lost the fourth-most win probability added due to fumbles. They were a bottom-10 team by DVOA on third down and in the red zone.

Those are all un-sticky metrics, and the Falcons are due for positive regression in every area. More balls are going to bounce Atlanta’s way in the upcoming season.

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Next, let’s look at the roster construction.

Last year’s Falcons were 30th in Defense DVOA, allowing the sixth-most yards and 10th-most points.

So, Atlanta went on a spending spree. The Falcons signed S Jessie Bates, DT David Onyemata, DE Calais Campbell, EDGE Bud Dupree, LB Kaden Elliss and CB Jeff Okudah.

While the Falcons may have overpaid for a few of those guys, every addition was smart and calculated.

Bates is one of the 15 best safeties in the league, and he should double the production Keanu Neal and Jaylinn Hawkins provided. Pairing Onyemata, Campbell and Dupree with Grady Jarrett give the Falcons a legit push on the defensive line. Even Okudah is a post-hype buy guy that started to play better in the second half of last season, and he could see a boost in production with A.J. Terrell pulling the No. 1 assignment.

At best, the Falcons could be a top-10 defense. At worst, all of their big off-season signings underperform, and they still improve because of how dreadful they were last season. There’s nowhere to go but up.

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The offense is awkward. But awkward could be good.

The Falcons were third in Rush Offense DVOA last season, rushing for the third-most yards in the NFL behind a top-10 offensive line. They doubled down on that strategy by drafting generational running back prospect Bijan Robinson in the first round and Syracuse offensive line guard Matt Bergeron in the second round.

Outside of the draft additions, the Falcons return four offensive linemen and all their skill position weapons. Sure, Atlanta’s quarterback is a huge question mark, but the Falcons were an electric, fast-paced, versatile, run-first offense, and they’re only going to get faster, better and more versatile.

NFL defenses are built to stop the deep passing attack. They aren’t built to stop an elite rushing attack with multiple players that can play multiple positions.

And maybe we’re all too low on the quarterback room. Ridder played fine in the final two weeks of the regular season, and the Falcons have a great backup in Taylor Heinicke. If Ridder were to get hurt, the Falcons might not miss a beat.

Don’t overlook this special teams unit. The Falcons finished fifth in Special Teams DVOA last season and project as elite again.

Finally, look at their schedule. The Falcons have the second-easiest strength of schedule in the NFL this year. The NFC South is weak, and the Falcons pull the equally-weak AFC South in interconference play.

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Football Outsiders projects the Falcons for 10 wins this season, making Over 8.5 Wins (-120) at DraftKings a must-bet.

Why do the betting markets like the Saints so much in the division? Derek Carr isn’t a special quarterback and constantly struggles when working with a new offensive coordinator. Dennis Allen-coached teams are 0-4 to the over on their win total.

The Falcons are +215 to win the NFC South at DraftKings, while the Saints are +120. Getting the Falcons as “underdogs” in this market is a blessing, considering everyone projects them as the best team in the division.

The plays:

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