How to bet A.J. Brown’s receiving props after a dominant first season with the Eagles

A.J. Brown was a force of nature in 2022. He may have been the best move Howie Roseman has ever made as general manager of the Eagles, which is saying something.

Brown picked up almost 1,500 yards receiving while adding 11 touchdowns. He was dominant at catching the ball over the middle and explosive in the deep passing game. He was as important to Jalen Hurts’ development as an MVP candidate as any player on the Eagles.

Can he replicate his 2022 production?

Probably not.

For what it’s worth, Brown wouldn’t be the first to see a decrease in production. No receiver in franchise history has ever recorded consecutive 1,200-yard seasons.

He’s also up against the odds.

The Eagles faced the easiest strength of schedule in the NFL last season. They’re projected to face a top-10 schedule of defenses in 2023, per Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analysis.

Brown won’t be able to run roughshod against soft defensive coverages again.

He also over-achieved last year.

Brown finished 2022 with 563 yards after catch (YAC), the sixth-most in the NFL. He averaged 6.6 YAC per reception.

However, NFL Next Gen Stats projected his expected YAC closer to 4.6. The two-yard per reception positive difference was the fifth-most among NFL wide receivers last season.

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Naturally, Brown’s 2023 projections reflect this incoming regression.

The Action Network’s Chris Raybon and Sean Koerner project Brown for 1,136 receiving yards and eight touchdowns in the upcoming season. Meanwhile, FTN’s Aaron Schatz projects Brown for 1,120 yards and seven touchdowns.

In a regression situation like this, we could normally bet against Brown in the season-long player prop market.

Unfortunately, the sportsbooks have adjusted the lines accordingly. The lowest season-long total receiving yards prop on the market for Brown is 1050.5, while the highest is 1125.5.

Oddsmakers are in line with Brown’s season-long touchdown prop, too. All the books are between 7.5 and 8.5 touchdowns for him in 2023.

However, there is one market where I think the Oddsmakers have over-adjusted for Brown’s regression.

BetRivers is hanging a season-long receptions line for Brown at 70.5, juiced to -112 on both sides.

Brown should see some regression in YAC. Better defenses will likely adjust and keep him from beating them over the top.

But I doubt Brown will see a major regression in targets.

The wide receiver room in Philadelphia is not that deep. Brown, DeVonta Smith and tight end Dallas Goedert accounted for 69% of the team’s targets last year, and they did nothing but add Olamide Zaccheaus from the Falcons.

Brown will still be the top option for Hurts, and Hurts will only trust Brown more when facing tougher defenses. He finished with 88 receptions on 145 targets last season, and I doubt he catches 20 fewer passes even if his total yardage drops a few hundred.

The Action Network team projects Brown for 79 receptions on 116 targets in the upcoming season, while Schatz projects Brown for 80 receptions on 130 targets.

Brown will see regression, but he should hit the 70-reception mark with ease, just as the projections say.

The play: A.J. Brown Over 70.5 2023 Receptions (-112) at BetRivers

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