Will Jalen Hurts surpass his passing props in 2023? Here’s where the betting value lies

The Philadelphia Eagles have found their franchise quarterback.

Jalen Hurts is that guy. He’s a dual-action threat that made every deep throw in the past season, primarily hitting AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith en route to 3,700 yards and 22 touchdowns through the air.

Can he replicate that production?

Oddsmakers seem to think so. Hurts’ season-long passing yards prop is set between 3,600 and 3,700 across the market, while his passing touchdowns prop is between 21.5 and 22.5

Are any of Hurts’ season-long passing props bettable?

Let’s investigate.

The Action Network’s Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon run their season-long player prop projections in the offseason. It gives me a baseline for any season-long player prop analysis.

The team projects Hurts to complete 322 of his 488 attempts (65.6%) for 3,772 yards in the upcoming season, a slight increase from his 306-for-460 (66.5%) for 3,701 he posted last season.

Meanwhile, Aaron Schatz’s DVOA projections peg hurts at 347-for-538 (64.4%) for 4,063 this year.

Hurts took the third-year jump many expected, but I’m not sure anybody saw how dominant he would be. He improved drastically in every advanced metric, including Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR), Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), Expected Points Added (EPA) per play, quarterback rating (QBR), completion percentage and yards per pass.

But, again, the question is: Is this replicable?

There are two sides to that coin. The top side tells us yes.

» READ MORE: Jalen Hurts is favored to lead the NFL in rushing scores at one sportsbook. Is it worth betting on?

The Eagles return almost all of Hurts’ support staff. He’ll still have Brown, Smith and tight end Dallas Goedert. The offensive line projects as one of the league’s best, especially in the middle with center Jason Kelce and on the outside with tackles Lane Johnson and Jordan Mailata.

The offensive line is important. The biggest part of Hurts’ 2022 was his development as a pocket passer.

Hurts and the Eagles posted a higher DVOA from passes inside than outside the pocket last season. The team ranked fourth in DVOA from passes inside the pocket.

Good pocket passing is sticky. It’s a reliable metric that we can use to project next year’s results.

If Hurts continues to sling the rock behind one of the best pass-blocking offensive lines in the NFL, he should cruise over his passing yards prop, as the projections suggest.

However, the flip side of the coin is where things get tricky.

It’s nearly impossible to maintain such elite production. It will get more complicated for the Eagles as they face a Championship schedule – the Eagles had the easiest strength of schedule in the NFL last year, and they’ll face the 13th-toughest schedule in 2023.

Hurts dominated against man defense last season, but he struggled more against zone defense. The NFL has film on that, and you have to think opposing coaches will throw different looks at Hurts.

However, this handicap largely comes down to volume.

The Eagles ran roughshod over an easy schedule last year, so they often were up by multiple scores at halftime. With a more-difficult schedule, the Eagles will have to play more four-quarter football, meaning Hurts will have to push the ball downfield later in games.

Plus, Hurts missed two games last year due to injury. It’s hard to predict injuries, but he should see an increase in attempts with an extra 120 minutes of football.

As the projections say, I’ll be on the Over for Hurts’ passing prop. Especially at BetMGM, where the line is only 3,599.5 yards.

The play: Hurts Over 3,599.5 2023 Passing Yards (-110) at BetMGM

» READ MORE: Eagles open as underdog in first preseason game against Ravens on Saturday

The Action Network team projects Hurts for 24 passing touchdowns this year. Schatz’s DVOA projections have him at 26 touchdowns.

Passing touchdowns are more variable than passing yards. A lot of it will come down to red-zone playcalling.

In that regard, I’m a little more bearish on Hurts’ output.

The Eagles have a deadly dual-action offensive attack that is lights out in the red zone.

They also use two-back sets in short-yardage situations to literally push Hurts across the line to gain using QB sneaks.

The Eagles went 28-for-31 on quarterback sneaks last year.

So, why pass the ball in the red zone?

That’s exactly what Nick Sranni and the coaching staff thought, as the Eagles were 31st in red-zone pass rate last season. They finished fourth in red-zone EPA per play.

I don’t expect them to get more creative. Why fix what isn’t broken?

Ultimately, I’d stay away from this line. The projections call for more than 22 passing touchdowns, and Hurts will have more opportunities with increased volume, but this statistic is too variable to project.

The play: Pass

» READ MORE: Will Jalen Hurts match his production from last season? Here’s a guide to betting his props

Hurts is absolutely throwing more than eight interceptions this season.

Hurts threw six interceptions last season but had 12 Turnover Worthy Plays. He’s due for some turnover regression.

The biggest part of this handicap is the harder schedule. The effects of this are three-fold.

First, better defenses are more likely to force turnovers. Those better defenses also have better pass rushes, which will force more pressure on Hurts.

Second, as mentioned, a harder schedule means the Eagles will play more four-quarter football. Hurts will have to force the ball downfield more in the latter part of games, and those are the most dangerous passing-down situations. You can expect more sketchy throws from Hurts in more competitive games, likely leading to more turnovers.

It’s also worth mentioning that Hurts wasn’t tested much last season. He’s a vastly different quarterback when trailing.

Third, better defenses are led by better coaches that should zero in on Hurts’ struggles against zone defense. His sack-and-interception rate more than doubled when dropping back against zone defense (9.9%) than man defense (4.1%). So, expect more zone defense and interceptions.

And, as mentioned, we should expect increased volume for Hurts if he doesn’t miss the time he did last year. Added volume can only mean more interceptions.

The Action Network team projects Hurts for nine interceptions, as does Schatz’s DVOA projections.

I think Hurts hits double-digit interceptions with the added volume against tougher defenses.

The play: Over 8.5 Interceptions (-110) at DraftKings

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