Will Jalen Hurts match his production from last season? Here’s a guide to betting his props

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts turned into a franchise quarterback last season. Philly rewarded him with a five-year, $255 million contract.

So, how will Hurts fare in his first season as one of the NFL’s highest-paid quarterbacks?

As a sports betting analyst, I came up with a fun thought experiment:

Let’s investigate Hurts’ season-long stat prop lines — such as Over/Unders for passing yards, passing TDs, rushing yards, etc. — and analyze whether we should bet the over or the under.

This study gives us a good idea of where expectations stand for Hurts in the upcoming season and whether he can exceed those expectations or vice versa.

Let’s begin.

As an aside: Thank you to The Action Network’s Sean Koerner for providing his season-long player projections, which helped immensely in this analysis.

I think the Eagles’ passing attack will take a step back this year.

The Super Bowl losers generally suffer a bad Super Bowl hangover, but many forget to realize they play a Super Bowl schedule the year after.

The Eagles had the easiest strength of schedule in the NFL last year, per Football Outsiders. They have a top-10 schedule this season.

Per Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analysis, the Eagles faced the ninth-easiest schedule of pass defenses last season. They’ll face the ninth-toughest schedule of pass defenses this year.

I have some concerns about fading Hurts.

First, he tossed for exactly 3700 yards last year despite missing two games to injury. You probably could’ve penciled him in for another 500 if he played the full season.

Second, the Eagles will likely increase their passing volume in the second half of games. The Eagles blew teams out in the first half of many 2022 games, so they often just ran the clock out. But with this season’s more difficult schedule, I imagine Hurts and the Eagles will have to press more in the fourth quarter.

Additionally, The Action Network’s Sean Koerner projects Hurts for 3924 passing yards this season. The value is on the over.

Still, I lean Under on this passing yards prop number.

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Hurts passed for exactly 22 touchdowns last season.

For all the reasons discussed in the previous section, I also lean Under on this bet. I have to think touchdowns and passing yards will be a correlated market.

However, Koerner’s numbers are bullish on Hurts in this market, projecting him for 24 passing touchdowns in the upcoming season.

So, again, I lean under but can’t recommend a play on either side.

» READ MORE: Eagles have favorable odds to win division, NFC and return back to Super Bowl

This one is easy.

Hurts threw six interceptions last year, but he had 12 Turnover Worthy Plays, per Pro Football Focus. He’s due for a few extra picks.

Hurts will also have a higher chance of throwing a few extra picks if he plays the two extra games he missed last year. Playing a much more difficult schedule has a two-fold effect here.

First, better defenses will induce more interceptions. That seems obvious.

Second, as mentioned, Hurts will be pressing more in the second half of closer-fought games. That’ll lead to more sketchy throws, Turnover Worthy Plays, and (likely) interceptions.

The Eagles will face tougher pass rushes, and Hurts will deal with that adjustment after losing his starting right guard, Issac Seumalo. The Eagles will still have the best offensive line in the NFL, but Hurts will likely be under pressure more often.

That’ll lead to more sketchy throws, Turnover Worthy Plays, and (likely) interceptions.

I also want to mention one more thing.

Per Sharp, Hurts finished seventh in Expected Points Added (EPA) per play against man defense last season (+0.18), but he finished 27th in EPA per play against zone defense (-0.02).

Within that split, Hurts’ sack-and-interception rate more than doubled when dropping back against zone defense (9.9%) than against man defense (4.1%).

The Eagles played a lot of man-heavy defensive schemes last season. This year, they’ll play more zone-defense schemes.

But the Eagles will also play better-coached defenses overall, and those teams will know Hurts’ weakness against zone defense.

Hurts should see more zone, and he’ll probably make more mistakes.

And the cherry on top: Koerner projects Hurts for 10 interceptions in the upcoming season.

I feel great about Hurts throwing more than 8.5 interceptions. It’s all lining up.

The play: Over 8.5 interceptions (-110)

» READ MORE: How to bet Dak Prescott’s interception total this NFL season

Hurts cashed over 700 rushing yards in each of the past two seasons.

I don’t see why the Eagles won’t continue to use Hurts in the rushing game. Their dual-action attack is so lethal.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Eagles leaned on Hurts more, given they let go of lead running back Miles Sanders in the offseason. They’ll replace Sanders’ production by committee (Kenneth Gainwell, Rashaad Penny, D’Andre Swift), but the change might take some time to implement.

Koerner projects Hurts for 787 rushing yards this season. So, I’d bet him to eclipse 700 yards again.

» READ MORE: Eagles’ Jalen Hurts is the most popular bet to win 2023 NFL MVP at two sportsbooks

Hurts rushed for 13 touchdowns last year.

The Eagles were a dominant red-zone offense (third in red-zone touchdown rate) because their dual-action attack is impossible to defend on the goal line.

The Eagles will still have a road-paving offensive line, despite the loss of Seumalo. They’ll be able to get push against short-yardage defense.

Koerner projects Hurts for exactly 10 rushing touchdowns this season, so there is technically slight value on the over.

I don’t project any drop-off in efficiency or volume for Hurts as a red-zone rush threat. He should hit double-digit rushing touchdowns relatively easily.

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