NFL wild card betting trends: Will underdogs and ‘Unders’ dominate again?

The NFL’s second season kicks off this weekend, which means one of two things in the NFL wagering world:

An opportunity to further boost the ol’ bankroll after a successful regular season. Or a chance to balance the ledger after coming out on the short end over the previous 18 weeks.

No matter which side of the profit-loss fence you’re on, it’s important to be armed with as much information as possible to make informed wagering decisions.

With that in mind, we did a deep dive into the results of NFL wild card matchups from the past seven postseasons. That exploration unearthed a handful of interesting NFL wild card betting trends related to both point spreads and totals.

Before getting on with the data, it’s important to remember this: “Trend” is synonymous with “tendency” — not “guarantee”.

So the following NFL wild card betting trends are meant to supplement your handicapping, not serve as the sole impetus for actual wagers.

Odds updated as of 5 p.m. ET on Jan. 11.

After crunching the numbers from the last 32 wild card games, two realities stood out like a flashing neon sign in a dark alley:

Favorites have been crushing it on the field, but not so much at the betting window. And those who like to bet on high-scoring games routinely have been getting their clocks cleaned.

Starting with the former: NFL wild card favorites since the 2015-16 season are 20-12 SU, but underdogs are cashing at a highly profitable 64.3% rate (18-13-1 ATS). NFC wild card dogs have been especially feisty, going 11-5 ATS.

One notable caveat: Wild card favorites went 5-1 SU and ATS last season. That means from 2015-2020, wild card underdogs went 17-8-1 ATS — a 68% hit rate.

Modest underdogs — those catching 3.5 points or fewer — have done the bulk of the damage, going 8-3-1 ATS since 2015-16. And those small dogs pulled off outright upsets in half of the 12 games.

On the other hand, double-digit favorites are a perfect 3-for-3 SU and ATS in the wild card round over the past seven years.

Looking at this weekend’s slate of games, there is one double-digit favorite: The Bills jumped to -13.5 at home against Miami on Wednesday after news broke that Dolphins starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) won’t play.

Also, it’s possible that San Francisco (currently -9.5 against Seattle) will get to double digits.

On the other side of the point spread spectrum is a trio of short favorites. Minnesota is -3 at home against the New York Giants, while the Los Angeles Chargers (Jacksonville) and Dallas Cowboys (at Tampa Bay) are laying 2.5 points on the road.

» READ MORE: Super Bowl MVP odds: Mahomes opens as favorite; Hurts sitting third

You’ve heard it a million times: Defense wins championships.

That’s not always true, of course. But this is: Defenses dominate NFL wild card games — at least over the past seven years, anyway.

Nearly two-thirds of all wild card games since 2015 have stayed Under the total (21 of 32). And there’s just a slight difference between the two conferences, with the Under going 11-5 in AFC wild card games and 10-6 in the NFC.

It also doesn’t much matter if the posted total is on the high side or the low end.

For instance, there have been six games with totals of 48.5 points or more. The Under hit in five of those contests. Meanwhile, in the 11 games with a posted total of 44 points or less, the Under is 7-4.

Only once during this seven-year stretch did Over bettors turn a profit on wild card weekend: In 2020, the Over went 4-2. Remove that and the Under is 19-7 since 2015 (73%).

Digging a little deeper, 18 of the last 32 wild card games have ended with 43 combined points or fewer — including 12 that finished with less than 40 points.

Conversely, only eight of those 32 contests were shootouts (50-plus combined points). That said, six of the eight occurred in the past two years.

The highest consensus totals for this weekend’s six matchups: Giants-Vikings (48.5) and Chargers-Jaguars (47.5).

Three games have totals below 44 points: Bills-Dolphins (43.5), Seahawks-49ers (42.5) and Ravens-Bengals (41.5).

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NFL executives and their broadcast partners will tell you all they root for come playoff time are compelling games.

Those suits didn’t get their wish during wild card weekend last year, as only two games were competitive — the 49ers upset the Cowboys 23-17 and the Bengals got by the Raiders 26-19.

The other four contests? They were decided by 16, 21, 23 and 30 points.

Those types of lopsided results have been commonplace in the opening round of the NFL playoffs.

Over the past seven years, 15 wild card games have been double-digit blowouts (including 10 decided by at least two touchdowns). Another 15 were decided by seven points or fewer, but only six by a field goal or less.

The most competitive wild card weekend was in 2019-20, when all four games were one-score contests (decided by eight points or less).

If you believe this weekend’s NFL wild card point spreads, we’re looking at three edge-of-your-seat nail-biters and three snoozers.

Then again, those are just projections. Which is why they play the games — and why we wager on them.

» READ MORE: NFL Wild Card betting odds: Breaking down this week’s playoff matchups

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.