49ers vs. Seahawks predictions: Four props for Thursday Night Football

Super Bowl winner. AFC and NFC champions. NFL MVP. NFL Offensive and Defensive Players of the Year.

All remain up for grabs heading into the final month of the 2022-23 regular season.

One thing that is completely locked up: NFL Comeback Player of the Year. That honor is going to Geno Smith, who has put together one of the all-time “Where did that come from?” seasons as the Seattle Seahawks’ quarterback.

After winning a preseason battle with Drew Lock, Smith has put up the best numbers — by far — of his nine-year NFL career. The 2013 second-round pick from West Virginia is completing an NFL-best 71.5 percent of his passes. He’s already set a career high in passing yards (3,433). And his 25 touchdowns are nearly double his previous best (he had 13 in 2014).

Smith is a huge reason why the Seahawks (7-6) are in the playoff hunt heading into Thursday’s NFC West showdown with the streaking San Francisco 49ers.

So who better to headline our four pack of 49ers vs. Seahawks props predictions than the soon-to-be-crowned NFL Comeback Player of the Year?

Note: Odds updated as of 12:45 p.m. ET on Dec. 15.

This seemed like a pregame-warmup layup when this prop was sitting at 20.5 earlier Thursday morning. Despite the bump up to 21.5, we’re still siding with the Over. Here’s why:

Smith has completed at least 20 passes in every game this season but one: He went 16-for-25 in a 39-32 loss at New Orleans in Week 5.

Yes, he’s landed right on 20 completions twice (back-to-back games against the Cardinals and Chargers following the Saints loss). And he had 21 on 36 attempts in last week’s loss at Carolina (easily Smith’s most inaccurate game of the season).

Obviously, neither number will get us to the window Thursday. Still, if you made this bet every single week, you’d be hitting at a 69.2% clip (9 of 13). We’d say that’s profitable.

What about facing the 49ers’ No. 1-ranked defense? Well, that ranking only applies to points allowed, total yards allowed and rushing yards allowed. Against the pass, San Francisco is 12th in yards allowed and 14th in completion percentage.

And even though Smith was limited to 195 passing yards — just two more than his season low — in a 27-7 loss in San Francisco in Week 2, he still completed 24 of 30 throws.

Confidently lay the juice, play the Over on this prop at BetMGM … and hope Smith plays all four quarters (unlike the Cardinals’ Kyler Murray on Monday).

We’re simply riding the hot hand here.

After hauling in just two touchdowns in Seattle’s first seven games — both coming in that Week 5 loss at New Orleans — Lockett has found the end zone in each of the last six contests.

Here’s how you know Smith is locking in (no pun intended) on one of the NFL’s top possession receivers whenever the offense gets near the goal line: Lockett eclipsed 68 receiving yards just once in the last six games, yet he scored a TD in all six.

Lockett was shutout at San Francisco in Week 2. However, he played in both games of the season series against the 49ers six times in his first seven seasons. On five of those six occasions, he’s scored at least one TD (the exception was back in 2017).

This one might not be easy, as the 49ers’ otherwise mediocre pass secondary has surrendered just 12 passing touchdowns. (Only the Houston Texans — yes, the Texans — have allowed fewer.)

Still, as hot as Lockett is and given this nice plus-money price FanDuel is offering, it’s worth taking a shot.

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Two weeks ago against Miami, McCaffrey touched the ball 27 times — 17 rushes, eight receptions — and produced 146 combined yards with one receiving touchdown.

So what did he do for an encore Sunday against a top-10 Tampa Bay Bucs defense? He rumbled for a season-high 119 yards and a touchdown and added two receptions for 34 yards and another score.

McCaffrey compiled those 299 total yards while dealing with a lingering knee issue and with third-string rookie quarterback Brock Purdy leading the 49ers’ offense.

Purdy (oblique, ribs) is listed as questionable for Thursday’s game but is expected to go. Regardless of who is under center, though, the offense is going to run through McCaffrey especially with multi-threat wideout Deebo Samuel (ankle) out.

Of course, Samuel being sidelined means one less weapon for Seattle’s defense to deal with. Problem is, McCaffrey — like Samuel — is one of the NFL’s most unique and difficult to defend players.

To that point: Samuel was on the field for less than one half on Sunday, yet McCaffrey still went wild.

Also, Samuel wasn’t on the field when McCaffrey started the season in Carolina, and “CMC” had more than 100 combined rushing/receiving yards in five of six games with the Panthers. And that was with Baker Mayfield and P.J. Walker as his quarterbacks.

Seattle’s defense has faced just two dual-threat skill players this season: Samuel and the Saints’ Alvin Kamara. Samuel had 97 rushing/receiving yards. Kamara had 194.

As the unquestioned focal point of San Francisco’s offense with Samuel sidelined, we expect McCaffrey to land somewhere in the middle of those two numbers Thursday night.

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We know what you’re thinking: “Didn’t you just say McCaffrey will have a big game in Seattle?”

Indeed. But we didn’t mention anything about him scoring (although we’d put money on McCaffrey crossing the goal line at least once).

If you caught our Thursday Night Football betting preview, you know we like the Seahawks to at least cover the point spread and be in position to pull off the outright upset.

Two big reasons for that prediction: No Samuel, and Purdy (assuming he plays) will be making his first career start on the road in front of an always-raucous Seahawks crowd.

Those two facts will almost certainly lead to San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan putting together a very conservative game plan. He’ll be looking to keep the chains moving, maintain possession for as long as possible, shorten the game, and get out of dodge with a low-scoring victory.

You can be sure Shanahan’s counterpart — Pete Carroll — is thinking the exact same thing for his squad.

That’s why the 49ers vs. Seahawks total is below 44 points despite ideal weather conditions in Seattle (no rain, no wind).

San Francisco did put up 33 and 35 points the last two weeks against Miami and Tampa, respectively. But those games were at home (and they were preceded by a 13-point effort against the Saints).

Fact is, the Niners have scored 24-plus points in just seven of 13 games, including two of five true road contests. And they’ve yet to cross 23 points in three consecutive games.

Look for a final score in the 21-20 or 20-17 range, so play San Francisco’s team total Under.

» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer

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