Bet on Nick Chubb being in store for a massive day vs the Steelers on MNF

When making a list of the hardest NFL players to tackle over the last five seasons, Nick Chubb has to be atop that list. His average of 5.3 career yards per attempt speaks for itself.

Entering the season, Chubb had +1,312 yards over expected since 2018. That was almost 300 yards more than second place Derrick Henry (+1,034). He’s never been much of a receiving threat, but the Browns gave him four catches in Week 1 to signify that may change.

Chubb leads the Browns against the Steelers on Monday Night Football, and I see him having an explosive game with over 100 yards from scrimmage. FanDuel has Chubb’s 100.5 scrimmage yard total at -114 odds.

(8:15 p.m. ET Monday, ABC)

Few teams in the NFL surprised us in Week 1 the way Cleveland and Pittsburgh did. In the Browns’ case, their surprise was a good one in the form of a 24-3 romping of the Bengals. As for Pittsburgh, a 30-7 loss couldn’t have gotten their season off on a worse note.

Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, it did get worse as Cameron Heyward was put on IR due to a groin injury and Diontae Johnson is out for a few weeks due to a hamstring injury.

Cleveland also didn’t escape without injury, as All-Pro right tackle Jack Conklin suffered a season ending injury. Their number one wide receiver Amari Cooper is unlikely to play due to a groin injury as well.

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Injuries aside, Pittsburgh looked miserable on both sides of the ball last week. After a preseason which saw the offense score touchdowns every series the starters played, the Steelers had one net yard in their first five drives.

But Cleveland was very good offensively, running for 206 yards and getting a more comfortable day from Deshaun Watson than any game he had in 2022. Chubb was a force with 106 yards on 18 carries and chipping in four catches for 21 yards.

On defense, T.J. Watt was the only bright spot for Pittsburgh with his three sacks and two forced fumbles. But the revamped linebacking core and secondary got cooked, with them giving up 188 yards on the ground and 129 yards to Brandon Aiyuk.

But the Browns defense had a standout performance in their first game under Jim Schwartz. Myles Garrett dominated as expected, but it was Cleveland’s secondary that was masterful holding Joe Burrow and company to 67 passing yards and 10 punts.

With Cooper out and Watson still being a work in progress, Chubb is the engine for the Browns offense. Without Kareem Hunt behind him anymore, Chubb is destined to get a massive workload this season. We saw proof of that last week with Chubb’s 22 catches.

Without Cooper, the likes of David Njoku, Elijah Moore, and Donovan Peoples-Jones will be the most prominent pass-catchers. But Njoku has a history of being inconsistent and Moore is just playing his second game with the team.

On the Steelers’ side, they’ll have a tough time controlling time of possession if their offense can’t convert first downs. Eventually that’ll cause their defense to wear down and get tired and Cleveland will look to run the ball plenty to keep exhausting their opponent.

For what it’s worth, the Steelers have done a better job than most against Chubb in his career, holding him to 4.6 yards per carry and an average of 81.9 scrimmage yards per game. But without Heyward, the run defense will take a huge hit and put pressure on their depth.

Chubb’s Week 1 work as a pass-catcher is what inspires more confidence in me than anything that 101 total yards is a very doable amount. While Chubb won’t ever be like an Austin Ekeler with his receiving volume, that added wrinkle could be one Pittsburgh isn’t ready for.

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