Cowboys vs. Bucs prediction: Dallas, Tampa will struggle to score again

Based solely on regular-season records, the betting line for Monday night’s Cowboys vs. Bucs NFL wild card showdown makes sense.

Dallas, a 2.5-point road favorite, went 12-5 and entered Week 18 with an outside chance to steal the NFC East from the Philadelphia Eagles.

On the other hand, Tampa Bay went 8-9, recording just six wins after Week 2. Yet the Bucs “earned” a home playoff game by winning the NFC South (the league’s worst division by a mile).

Then again, one of Tampa Bay’s victories during its 2-0 start came in the opener against the Cowboys … in Dallas.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys closed the regular season with a dreadful 26-6 loss at Washington as a 7.5-point favorite — a game that meant nothing to the Commanders.

Over the final five weeks, Dallas also lost in overtime at Jacksonville and nearly got sniped at home by the lowly Houston Texans.

Which is a long way of saying this: We have zero interest in betting on either of these squads — not even with Tom Brady or Dak Prescott’s money. That’s why our Cowboys vs. Bucs prediction targets the total.

Odds updated as of 10 a.m. ET on Jan. 15.

Not going to lie: This matchup is highly aggravating. Because we were hoping to fade both of these mediocre teams in the playoffs.

Seriously, neither side is trustworthy right now, and no result Monday night would be surprising.

But there is reason to believe this contest will be a low-scoring defensive battle, and not just because the first Bucs-Cowboys meeting back in Week 1 was a 19-3 Sunday night snooze fest.

Granted, Dallas’ defense sprung some big leaks down the stretch, yielding 27.2 points per game over the last five contests.

And that includes a 27-13 win over Tennessee in Week 17 — a game in which the Titans sat most of their starters and handed the offense to a third-string quarterback who had only joined the team eight days earlier.

We’re not really sure what’s to blame for the dropoff, as Dallas held seven of its first 10 opponents to less than 20 points. But what we do know is Brady and the Bucs would struggle to put up points against the TCU defense that showed up in the national championship game.

» READ MORE: NFL wild card betting trends: Will underdogs and ‘Unders’ dominate again?

All quips aside, Tampa Bay averaged just 18.4 points in the regular season. We’re talking fewer than the Panthers, Cardinals, Saints and Bears.

On the positive side, the Bucs were mostly consistent, hovering around their average most of the season: They scored between 16 and 23 points in 11 of 17 games.

Brady and Co. topped 23 points just twice. They scored 31 in Week 4 against Kansas City (with the final seven points coming in garbage time) and 30 against Carolina in Week 17 (but they entered the fourth quarter trailing 21-10).

So even as shaky as Dallas’ defense has been lately, what are the odds Tampa scores more than 23 points for just the third time in 18 contests this season? Not great.

The Cowboys’ offense, of course, has been prolific for most of the second half of the campaign.

In 12 games Prescott started, Dallas produced at least 27 points nine times — all from Week 8-17. That includes four 40-point-plus outbursts.

But Prescott has been off lately.

He’s thrown interceptions in seven straight games (11 in all during the stretch). And last week against Washington, he was 14-for-37 for 128 yards in a game the Cowboys trailed the entire way.

It also has to be noted that Prescott is 1-3 in the playoffs with an 87.9 passer rating. And since losing 34-31 at home to Green Bay in the 2016-17 postseason, he’s led Dallas to 24, 22 and 17 points in the postseason.

This time around, Prescott runs up against a Bucs defense that carried the team the entire season. Take out a meaningless 30-17 loss at Atlanta in last week’s season finale and Tampa yielded 20.6 points per game.

True, that stop unit got torched by the 49ers (35 points), Bengals (34) and Panthers (24) down the stretch. But it’s the same unit that held Prescott and the Cowboys to a field goal back in Week 1 (with Prescott going just 14-for-29 for 134 yards and one interception before leaving in the fourth quarter with a thumb injury).

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Lastly, we expect both coaches to craft game plans that are on the conservative side.

Dallas’ Mike McCarthy knows his turnover-prone quarterback is in a fragile state right now. And Tampa’s Todd Bowles knows his 45-year-old quarterback has serious limitations at this point, as well as a shaky offensive line.

So it’s doubtful that Prescott and Brady will engage in a downfield aerial battle for 60 minutes.

Will we see more points than the Week 1 meeting? You certainly would think so. But in the end, we expect a final score in the 21-17 range.

Play this one Under the total at BetMGM.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.