Cowboys vs. Bucs predictions: Four props for Monday’s Wild Card game

Dak Prescott has been a human punching bag in recent weeks, absorbing blows from all angles.

Media pundits, bettors, fantasy football managers, even Cowboys fans — all have lined up to fire uppercuts at the Dallas quarterback.

This is what happens when you tie for the NFL lead in interceptions despite playing in just 12 of 17 games, which was the case for Prescott this season.

However, we were taught not to kick a man when he’s down. So “Dak Prescott will throw an interception” is not among our props predictions for Monday night’s Cowboys vs. Bucs wild card game in Tampa Bay.

Just kidding. The real reason we’re not recommending that particular prop is because it’s juiced through the roof. Instead, the Prescott-related prediction that’s among our four Cowboys vs. Bucs props involves his passing yardage total.

Newsflash: We don’t expect a positive outcome.

Odds updated as of Jan. 16 at 12:30 p.m. ET.

Odds: 247.5 yards, Over -117/Under -117 (at Caesars Sportsbook)

Prediction: Under

One could easily make a case for Prescott surpassing 246 passing yards Monday night. After all, he’s done it in eight of his last 10 games (going for more than 260 yards six times).

He also completely shredded the Bucs in Tampa in the 2021 season opener, going for 403 yards (and three touchdowns). And he’s beaten this number in three of his four career playoff contests.

So why go the other way? For one thing, as we explained in our Cowboys vs. Bucs preview, this NFL wild card finale figures to be a defensive slugfest.

In addition to Prescott’s interception issues — he’s thrown 11 in the last seven games, including at least one in each contest — Prescott is coming off his worst outing of the season.

In a 26-6 loss at Washington in Week 18, Prescott completed just 14 of 37 passes for 128 yards — a pathetic 3.46 yards per pass attempt. And this was against a Commanders squad playing for nothing but pride.

Prior to last week, Prescott’s worst performance of this season was against … Tampa Bay. Back in Week 1, he went 14-for-29 for just 134 yards before injuring his thumb in the fourth quarter.

It’s difficult to see Prescott doing a whole lot better than that Monday night. Because few quarterbacks have had big games against the Bucs this season.

In fact, only four passers threw for more than 245 yards against Tampa Bay: Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes (249), Seattle’s Geno Smith (275), Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers (255) and — somehow — Carolina’s Sam Darnold (341).

It’s difficult to believe Prescott joins that list Monday. Play this prop Under at BetMGM.

Again, we don’t expect to see a ton of points Monday night — which would be a first for NFL Wild Card Weekend, as all five games to this point have flown Over the total.

So that forecast plays a part in calling for Brady to throw for no more than one touchdown.

Also playing a part: The Cowboys finished in the top half of the league in passing touchdowns allowed, giving up 23 (or an average of 1.4 per contest). That includes holding Brady to a single TD pass (and just 212 passing yards) back in Week 1.

Admittedly, the ageless Golden Boy did pick up the touchdown pace down the stretch this season. After throwing for multiple scores just once in the first nine games, he did so in five of the final eight. That includes a one-TD effort last week against Atlanta, when he didn’t play in the second half.

Also, three of those multi-TD games came against three of the best defenses in terms of passing touchdowns allowed: Cincinnati and New Orleans (both tied for third), and Cleveland (tied for fourth).

But none of those squads finished the season with 54 sacks — which the Cowboys did. In fact, Dallas tied for the third-most quarterback put-downs in the league.

That’s key, because the Bucs’ offensive line is a weak link, and the 45-year-old Brady has the mobility of an infant. So he’s not going to have a ton of time to sit in the pocket and pick apart the Cowboys’ secondary.

Will Brady find the end zone at least once? Most likely, as he’s done so in 20 of his last 22 playoff games dating to 2015. But twice? We don’t see it, not in a low-scoring game.

Pollard had just 22 total rushing and receiving yards when these teams met in the season opener. However, the Cowboys’ change-of-pace running back only had eight touches in spelling starting tailback Ezekiel Elliott.

Since that contest, Pollard has been heavily involved in the offense. So much so that he’s compiled at least 80 combined rushing and receiving yards in 10 of his last 14 games played.

Two of the exceptions were against Washington, which held Pollard to 6 rushing and 2 receiving yards in Week 4 and 19 rushing yards (no receptions) last week. Again, though, Pollard wasn’t featured much in either game; he combined for a total of 15 rushes and four targets.

The only time this season that Pollard saw a lot of action and didn’t beat this FanDuel prop number: In Week 14 against the Texans, he had 10 rushes for 42 yards and four catches for 20 yards.

Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy would be mistaken not to feature Pollard a lot on Monday.

Not only does he have far more big-play potential than Elliott, but Pollard’s speed and skill-set can give the Bucs’ attacking defense problems.

It’s unlikely that Pollard will go off for more than 97 combined yards, like he did eight times in the regular season. But more than 71 seems very doable.

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Too bad sportsbooks don’t offer wide receiver props on the number of targets. If so, we’d switch out this play for the Over on that one — because Brady loves him some Mike Evans.

Brady has targeted his favorite wideout at least eight times in four straight games and eight of the last 10 that Evans has played. (Evans didn’t suit up in last week’s finale at Atlanta.)

Unfortunately for Brady, many of those targets were, well, off target. Because Evans finished with five-plus catches in just six of the 10 contests. And for the season, Evans hauled in five or more passes just eight times in 15 games.

However, five of Brady’s 19 completions in Dallas in Week 1 went to Evans.

Also, in his most recent game — a must-win battle at home against Carolina in Week 17 — Evans had a season-high 10 catches (on 12 targets) for 207 yards in a division-clinching 30-24 win.

In other words, when Brady needed it most, he leaned on his security blanket — and Evans delivered.

You can be sure Brady will be looking to play catch with Evans often on Monday night. Because in last year’s two playoff games, the duo connected for 17 receptions (eight in one game, nine in the other) and 236 total yards.

Grab the Over on this Cowboys vs. Bucs prop at FanDuel.

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