NFL Draft predictions: Three prop bets for Thursday’s first round

At 8 p.m. ET on Thursday, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell will walk up to a podium in Kansas City and open the 2023 NFL Draft by officially putting the Carolina Panthers on the clock.

Bettors across the land will rejoice, as the NFL’s excruciating 68-day wagering drought will finally come to an end with the league’s first bettable event since Super Bowl 57 on Feb. 12.

Who will be the first player drafted? And the second and the third? How many offensive and defensive players will be selected in the opening round?

What will the Eagles do with their pair of picks Thursday? And just how far will Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud tumble?

All those questions will be answered — and all the associated wagers will be scored — over the course of about three hours.

As we inch closer to the Panthers’ much-anticipated selection, here’s a trio of NFL Draft prop bet predictions — including one involving the top prospect from Penn State.

Odds updated as of 10:30 a.m. ET on April 27.

In 2021, the Dallas Cowboys selected Penn State linebacker Micah Parsons with the 12th overall pick of the first round. It was the highest a Nittany Lions player had been drafted since the New York Giants nabbed running back Saquon Barkley with the second overall pick in 2018.

Then last April, Penn State wide receiver Jahan Dotson went No. 16 overall to the Washington Commanders.

Come Thursday night, Nittany Lions fans and alumni will have their eyes focused on Porter, a second-team All-American and first-team All-Big Ten selection in 2022.

Porter, whose father is former Pittsburgh Steelers linebacker Joey Porter, is projected in NFL odds markets to be the third defensive back selected.

At FanDuel, Porter (+3000) trails Illinois’ Devon Witherspoon (-320) and Oregon’s Christian Gonzalez (+230) in odds to be the first cornerback off the board. Porter’s draft position of 19.5 at Caesars Sportsbook also is far behind both Witherspoon (6.5) and Gonzalez (8.5).

However, there’s a huge gap between Porter and the rest of the cornerback prospects. So it’s pretty much a given that the 6-foot-2, 193-pounder will be the third defensive back taken.

The question as it pertains to this prop bet is: Will Porter become the third Penn State player drafted inside the top 20 in as many years — something that hasn’t happened since 1982-84?

We say yes, as cornerbacks with Porter’s shutdown capabilities have become increasingly important in today’s pass-happy NFL. Bet on some team snatching him up before the 20th pick.

» READ MORE: Super Bowl 58 odds: How did the Aaron Rodgers trade to Jets impact NFL futures markets?

How big of a lock is Robinson to be the first running back off the board in this year’s NFL Draft? Sportsbooks didn’t even bother offering a “first running back selected” prop, like they did for virtually every other position.

Robinson is that far ahead of the pack. And he’s that special of a running back, as he proved during his three-year career at Texas — a career that ended with more than 3,400 rushing yards, 41 combined rushing and receiving touchdowns, and the 2022 Doak Walker Award as the nation’s top tailback.

But just because Robinson is head and shoulders better than this year’s other running back prospects and even though he projects to have an outstanding career does not mean he’s going to be a high first-round pick.

Because running backs rarely are anymore.

Since Barkley went No. 2 overall in 2018, only four running backs have been drafted in the first round. And none were picked higher than former Alabama stars Josh Jacobs and Najee Harris, who each went 24th in 2019 and 2021, respectively.

The reason NFL general managers are reluctant to use a high pick on a tailback boils down to three words: short shelf life.

For instance, Todd Gurley was the 10th overall pick of the Los Angeles Rams in 2015 and Ezekiel Elliott went No. 4 overall to the Dallas Cowboys the following year. Gurley has been out of the league for two seasons, while Elliott was cut by the Cowboys this offseason and remains unsigned.

Might a running back-starved team gamble and draft Robinson among the first dozen picks? It’s definitely possible, but we’re betting against it and hope to be rewarded with a plus-money payout from FanDuel.

» READ MORE: NFL Draft predictions: How will the Eagles deploy No. 10 pick?

Rumors are that Patriots head coach Bill Belichick believes he’s got a quarterback problem — that being his current quarterback isn’t named Tom Brady.

And while the jury is still out on current quarterback Mac Jones — whom Belichick moved up to draft just two years ago — the reality in New England is this: Throwing the pigskin isn’t as big an issue as finding quality guys to catch it.

Just look at the top three wideouts on the Patriots’ current depth chart:

Translation: Jones — or whomever is throwing passes for Belichick next season — needs some weapons. And there are multiple weapons to be had in this year’s draft.

The crown jewel is thought to be Ohio State’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba, whom New England will surely scoop up if he falls to the Patriots at No. 14. It’s even possible that Belichick will move up to grab Smith-Njigba.

There are other intriguing options, too, including TCU’s Quentin Johnston and Boston College speedster Zay Flowers.

Yes, oddsmakers have “offensive lineman” as the +200 favorite to be the Patriots’ first pick. And since Wednesday night, wide receiver has dropped from the second choice at +250 down to the fourth choice at +500, behind both quarterback (+300) and cornerback (+400).

Still, we can’t see any scenario in which Belichick comes out of the first round without a game-changing offensive playmaker.

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