NFL Draft predictions: Who is the best bet to be taken second overall?

Editor’s note: Pennsylvania law prohibits wagering on non-competitive sports events, including the NFL Draft. However, NFL Draft betting is permitted in neighboring jurisdictions, including New Jersey, Ohio and West Virginia.

When does a victory actually feel worse than a loss? Just ask the Houston Texans’ front office and fans.

Both entities watched their team stage a late fourth-quarter rally in the 2022-23 season finale that resulted in a 32-31 victory at the Indianapolis Colts — a victory that cost the Texans the No. 1 overall pick in this week’s NFL Draft.

Houston now sits in the No. 2 spot behind the Carolina Panthers, who gave a king’s ransom to the Chicago Bears to move up from No. 9 to No. 1.

All indications are the Panthers will use their pick on Alabama quarterback Bryce Young when the 2023 NFL Draft commences Thursday night in Kansas City.

That means the first bit of draft-related drama is centered on the Texans and their plan with the No. 2 pick.

Will they keep it? And if so, what will they do with it? Or will Houston pull a Bears and deal the pick to another quarterback-starved franchise?

Here’s a look at the latest odds on the second player to come off the board Thursday night, along with our best bet for this particular NFL Draft prop.

Odds updated as of 2:45 p.m. ET on April 24.

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For months, every discussion related to the top of the NFL Draft was focused on two quarterbacks: Alabama’s Young and Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud.

The two have been projected to go No. 1 and No. 2 — in either order — since the end of the 2022-23 NFL and college seasons.

Actually, make that had been.

Because in the days leading up to this weekend’s draft, Kentucky quarterback Will Levis has seen his stock rise at the same time Stroud’s stock has taken a tumble.

Oddly, Stroud remains the second choice to be drafted first overall behind Young. FanDuel has Young’s odds at -2400 to go No. 1, with Stroud at +1500. Levis is fourth at FanDuel, but is priced as a +6000 long shot.

However, Levis is the consensus top choice to go No. 2. He’s ranging from -120 at FanDuel to -160 at Caesars Sportsbook.

Where does Stroud fall in the No. 2 pick projections? Depends where you look. The 2022-23 Heisman Trophy finalist is the third choice at Caesars (+425) but the fourth choice at both FanDuel (+600) and BetMGM (+550).

That’s a pretty clear indication that the Texans have Levis significantly ahead of Stroud on their draft board — as do any of Houston’s trading partners.

Throwing a monkey wrench into handicapping the No. 2 pick: The Texans have been (and will continue to be) tight-lipped regarding their plan.

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Even though the top two quarterbacks on the team’s roster are 2021 third-round pick Davis Mills and journeyman veteran Case Keenum, there’s no guarantee Houston will draft a passer if it stands pat at No. 2.

After posting a combined 11-38-1 record over the past three seasons, the Texans have a ton of needs to address. So they could very easily choose to bolster their defense with a game-wrecking pass rusher. The likely choices: Alabama’s Will Anderson or Texas Tech’s Tyree Wilson.

Or Houston could trade down, stockpile some draft picks and use them to plug some of their many holes — perhaps even nabbing a franchise QB down the draft board.

If the Texans end up dealing the pick, oddsmakers are confident the trading partner will be a team that has eyes on Levis.

The 6-foot-2 prototypical drop-back passer began his college career at Penn State before transferring to Kentucky prior to his junior year. Levis completed more than 65 percent of his passes for the Wildcats, amassing 3,232 yards and 43 touchdowns while tossing 23 interceptions.

Those numbers pale in comparison to Stroud’s, who had a 69.3 percent completion rate, 8,123 yards and 85 touchdowns versus just 12 picks in two seasons leading the Buckeyes’ offense. But Stroud was surrounded with NFL-caliber talent, an advantage that Levis lacked at Kentucky.

Given that Levis is now the odds-on favorite to go second overall, it’s clear that his skillset is more in line with what the Texans and other quarterback needy teams are looking for in a signal caller.

Unfortunately for NFL Draft bettors, Levis’ current price to go No. 2 overall is less than appealing. Simply put, it’s high-risk, low-reward to bet on Levis being second off the board.

So rather than lay that undesirable price, we’re going to bet on other teams failing to meet Houston’s asking price, leading to the Texans hanging on to the No. 2 pick. And we’re going to back up that figurative wager with a literal one: Houston will use the selection to snag its pass rusher of the future, fast-rising Texas Tech standout Wilson.

Wilson’s best odds to go No. 2 overall: +340 at FanDuel.

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