NFL Wild Card betting odds: Breaking down this week’s playoff matchups

Three battles between division rivals. Three rematches of games played earlier in the season. Two road favorites. Two teams laying double digits.

There’s a lot to dissect less than 24 hours after NFL Wild Card betting odds were released for this week’s six playoff clashes.

Here’s a quick breakdown for each game, beginning on the West Coast, where a legit Super Bowl contender is expected to blow out an NFC West rival for the third time this season.

All odds via FanDuel and updated as of 4:30 p.m. ET on Jan. 9.

Analysis: The 49ers (13-4, 11-6 ATS) swept the season series from Seattle (9-8, 7-10 ATS) for just the second time since 2007 (and first since 2011). And they did it in emphatic fashion with two different starting quarterbacks — both of whom began the season as backups.

Back in Week 2, San Francisco blasted the Seahawks 27-7 as an 8.5-point home favorite. Jimmy Garoppolo started under center for the 49ers in place of Trey Lance, who suffered a season-ending knee injury in a season-opening loss at Chicago.

By the time the Niners traveled to Seattle for the rematch in Week 15, Garoppolo was on the shelf with his own leg injury.

Didn’t matter, as rookie Brock Purdy — the final player selected in the 2022 NFL Draft — guided San Francisco to a never-in-doubt 21-13 win as a 3-point road chalk. It was the first road start of Purdy’s career.

That victory was part of a season-closing 10-game winning streak for the Niners. Six of those victories came at home, seven were by double digits, and San Francisco went 8-2 ATS.

Meanwhile, the Seahawks backed their way into the playoffs. After barely escaping the Rams 19-16 in overtime Sunday, Seattle needed Detroit — the team the Seahawks eliminated with their win over L.A. — to knock off the Packers in Green Bay.

The Lions obliged with a come-from-behind 20-16 win.

After a surprising 6-3 start to the campaign, the Seahawks staggered to the finish line, going 3-5 SU and 1-7 ATS.

On the totals front, San Francisco closed the season on a 7-3 Over spurt, while Seattle stayed Under in each of its last four contests. Both head-to-head meetings also stayed low.

» READ MORE: Bills, Bengals, 49ers big early favorites for NFL’s Wild Card Weekend

Analysis: Jacksonville needed a Week 18 home victory over the Titans to clinch the AFC South and the franchise’s first playoff berth since 2017 (and second since 2008).

The Jags got it, but it wasn’t easy.

Trailing 16-13 with less than three minutes to play, Jacksonville linebacker Josh Allen scooped up a Tennessee fumble and rumbled 37 yards for what proved to be the game-winning touchdown.

The 20-16 victory was the fifth in a row for the Jags (9-8, 8-9 ATS). However, they failed to cover as a 5.5-point favorite, ending a 4-0 ATS run.

No such final-game drama was needed for the Chargers, who ended their four-year playoff drought in Week 17 with a 31-10 home rout of the Rams.

That was Los Angeles’ fourth consecutive win and rendered Sunday’s game in Denver meaningless. (The Chargers fell 31-28 as a 6.5-point underdog, with their starters inexplicably playing most of the game.)

Los Angeles (10-7, 11-5-1 ATS) enters the playoffs on a 4-0-1 ATS run. The team also went 5-0 SU and ATS as a road favorite this season, and had the league’s fourth-best point spread record.

However, one of those point-spread setbacks came against the Jaguars. Back in Week 3, Jacksonville traveled west and spanked the Chargers 38-10 as a 6.5-point underdog.

L.A. quarterback Justin Herbert played in that game with fractured rib cartilage (an injury he sustained in Kansas City the previous week).

Prior to the Week 3 clash, the Chargers had won eight of nine meetings against the Jags, going 9-0 ATS. They’re 4-1 SU/5-0 ATS in their last five trips to Jacksonville, the only blemish being a 20-17 overtime defeat in 2017.

Also, eight of the last 10 Chargers-Jaguars clashes (including this year’s) have hurdled the total.

That said, Jacksonville enters the postseason on a 7-3 Under run (with the last three games staying low). Los Angeles is 4-1-1 Under in its last six.

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Analysis: Miami (9-8 SU and ATS) gutted out a 21-19 upset win over Buffalo as a 4.5-point underdog in a Week 3 battle played in sweltering South Beach heat.

The Dolphins then traveled north in Week 15 and gave the Bills all they could handle in frigid and snowy conditions. Miami ended up losing 32-29 when Buffalo kicked the winning field goal as time expired, but covered as a 7-point underdog.

Despite those results, the Bills (13-3, 7-8-1 ATS) join San Francisco as a double-digit favorite in Wild Card Weekend. Why? Because Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa — who gave the Bills fits twice this season — is sidelined with his third concussion of the season.

Tagovailoa will not suit up Sunday if he doesn’t clear the league’s concussion protocol. Even if he does, it’s possible Miami won’t risk putting its franchise quarterback back on the field.

If Tagovailoa can’t go, veteran backup Teddy Bridgewater is expected to get his first playoff start.

Bridgewater sat out Sunday’s season-ending 11-6 win over the Jets with a broken finger on his right (throwing) hand. However, he currently is not listed on Miami’s injury report.

The Dolphins are back in the postseason for the first time since 2016, and they have the Bills to thank for it.

Buffalo’s emotional 35-23 victory over New England on Sunday — just six days after safety Damar Hamlin suffered a cardiac arrest on the field in Cincinnati — eliminated the Patriots and opened the playoff door for Miami.

The Bills carry a seven-game winning streak into the postseason. However, they’re just 3-6-1 ATS in their last nine contests (all as a favorite). That includes a 1-4 ATS mark at home.

The Dolphins halted a five-game losing skid with Sunday’s win over the Jets. They’re 3-1 ATS in their last four.

Last month’s Dolphins-Bills shootout in New York ended a 3-0 Under run in this rivalry.

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Analysis: The Vikings (13-4, 7-9-1 ATS) had one of the most bizarre regular seasons in recent memory.

They won 13 of 17 games and yet scored three fewer points than they allowed. How did Minnesota pull it off? By going 11-0 in one-score games (decided by eight points or fewer) and 2-4 in games decided by double digits.

One of the Vikings’ nail-biters was a 27-24 victory against New York on Christmas Eve. Kicker Greg Joseph drilled a 61-yard field goal at the gun for the winning points, though the Giants covered as a 4.5-point underdog.

New York (9-7-1) finished with the NFL’s top point-spread record at 13-4 ATS, just ahead of Cincinnati (12-4 ATS). Included is a sterling 10-2 ATS mark as an underdog, with six outright upsets.

The Giants, who are back in the playoffs for the first time since 2016, had nothing to play for on Sunday in Philadelphia. Despite that fact — and despite sitting the bulk of their starters — they still only lost 22-16 as a 16.5-point underdog.

New York started the season 7-1 SU and ATS in one-score games, but went 1-3-1 in their last five such contests (5-0 ATS).

Still, the Giants arrive in Minnesota on a 4-0 ATS roll, while the Vikings have failed to cover in four of their last five.

The Vikings ended a 6-0 Over streak when Sunday’s 29-13 win at Chicago fell a half-point short of the 42.5-point total.

Conversely, New York went 5-2 Under in its seven true road games (one exception: the 27-24 loss at Minnesota topped the total).

Analysis: These longtime AFC North rivals will face off for the second straight week, after Cincinnati dumped Baltimore 27-16 on Sunday as an 11.5-point home favorite.

The lingering question ahead of this contest: Will the Ravens have quarterback Lamar Jackson back under center?

Jackson missed the final five regular season games with a knee injury. There’s been no official word on Jackson’s status for Sunday night’s showdown, but reports are he likely won’t play.

If that turns out to be the case, the Ravens will go with backup Tyler Huntley. Huntley went 2-3 in place of Jackson before sitting out Sunday’s game with wrist and shoulder injuries. He’s officially questionable for the Wild Card matchup.

With Jackson and Huntley sidelined, rookie Anthony Brown made his first career NFL start in Cincinnati. He went 19-for-44 for 286 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions.

Regardless of who ends up running the Ravens’ offense, it might not matter. Because these are two teams going in completely opposite directions.

The Bengals (12-4 SU and ATS) are 12-2 since starting the season with consecutive losses. That includes an ongoing eight-game winning streak (7-1 ATS).

Baltimore (10-7, 8-9 ATS) has dropped three of its last four and has alternated point spread covers in its last six contests. With Jackson on the field, though, the Ravens beat the Bengals 19-17 in Week 5, with Cincy cashing as a 3-point road underdog.

The Week 18 clash between these squads topped the total, ending a 5-0 Under stretch for Baltimore and a 4-1 Under run for the Bengals.

Analysis: The contest that closes out Wild Card weekend is a rematch of the first Sunday Night Football game of the year.

That night, Tampa Bay easily dispatched Dallas 19-3 as a 2.5-point road favorite. The Bucs then hit the road again in Week 2 and took out New Orleans 20-10, laying the same number.

After that? It was a major struggle for Tom Brady and Co., who went 6-9 SU and 2-12-1 ATS the rest of the way (1-6-1 ATS at home).

Despite that lackluster performance over 3½ months, Tampa Bay (8-9 SU, 4-12-1 ATS) still clinched the dreadful NFC South in Week 17 with a 30-24 comeback win over Carolina.

The division title allows the Bucs to host a playoff game despite finishing four games worse than the Cowboys (12-5, 10-7 ATS) in the standings.

The betting market clearly doesn’t believe home-field advantage — or the Week 2 blowout win in Dallas — will be of much help to Tampa Bay. Because like Jacksonville, the Bucs are a home underdog in the Wild Card round.

Of course, it’s not like the Cowboys are inspiring much confidence right now. They played all their starters on Sunday in Washington and still got rolled 26-6 by a Commanders’ squad that was playing for nothing but pride.

Since blowing out the Colts 54-19 at home on Sunday night in Week 13, Dallas is 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS. The Cowboys faced the following starting quarterbacks in those final five regular season games: Davis Mills, Trevor Lawrence, Gardner Minshew, Joshua Dobbs and rookie Sam Howell.

This week? They get Brady, who is 35-12 in the playoffs (including 4-2 in the Wild Card round).

Conversely, since winning Super Bowl XXX in January 1996, Dallas is 4-11 in the postseason. That includes seven consecutive playoff losses as a visitor.

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