NFL wild card props: Five picks for this weekend’s playoff games

The mother of all NFL props days — Super Bowl Sunday — is still a month away. But with six games kicking off the postseason this weekend, the league is serving us a hearty appetizer with dozens of NFL wild card props options.

After perusing the robust menu, we settled on five NFL wild card props recommendations — one for each contest on Saturday and Sunday.

What about Monday night’s wild card finale between the Cowboys and Bucs? Check back after the weekend, as we’ll have that one covered, too.

Odds updated as of 2:30 p.m. ET on Jan. 13.

When the 49ers went to Seattle for the Week 15 Thursday Night Football game, we delivered on three of our four prop bet predictions.

One of those: McCaffrey to finish with more than 121.5 combined rushing and receiving yards. San Francisco’s multipurpose running back easily beat that number piling up 108 rushing yards on 26 carries and hauling in five catches for 30 yards.

So of course we’re doubling down on McCaffrey’s rushing/receiving yardage prop for Saturday’s wild-card game against the Seahawks — and at a much better number, too.

Since joining the 49ers in Week 8, McCaffrey has surpassed 113 all-purpose yards five times in 10 games.

OK, but that just means he came up short in the other five.

Very true. But it’s important to isolate what the former first-round pick of the Carolina Panthers has done since rookie quarterback Brock Purdy was thrust into action.

In Week 13, Purdy took over for Jimmy Garoppolo, who got hurt on San Francisco’s first series in a game against Miami. McCaffrey went on to compile 146 rushing and receiving yards that day.

He then totaled at least 138 combined yards in three of the Niners’ next four games before a ho-hum 79-yard rushing/receiving outing in a season-ending 38-13 thrashing of the Cardinals.

San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan is no fool. He knows the best way to take pressure off his seventh-round rookie QB is to get the ball in the hands of the versatile McCaffrey as often as possible.

We expect to see that Saturday — especially with rainy and windy weather in the forecast, which would hamper the downfield passing game.

» READ MORE: NFL wild card betting trends: Will underdogs and ‘Unders’ dominate again?

In our Chargers vs. Jaguars betting preview, we mentioned how Allen — when healthy — has been Mr. Reliable for third-year quarterback Justin Herbert.

Key words there: when healthy. Which Allen wasn’t for the vast majority of this season.

The Chargers’ veteran wideout tweaked his hamstring in Week 1, missed the next five games, got hurt again in a Week 7 loss to Seattle and sat out another three contests.

Since returning to action in Week 11, though, Allen has been nearly unstoppable. He has 60 catches for 675 yards and four touchdowns in eight games.

In the last six contests alone, Herbert has targeted Allen 68 times. That’s led to 50 connections and 532 yards. And only once during this stretch did Allen finish with fewer than 86 receiving yards (he had 60 in a 31-10 Week 17 victory over the Rams).

With deep-threat receiver Mike Williams out with a back injury suffered in last week’s meaningless season finale at Denver, we expect Herbert to lean heavily on his favorite wideout Saturday night.

Yes, Jacksonville’s pass defense was markedly improved down the stretch of the regular season. The Jags surrendered 227 passing yards or fewer in four of their final five games (including less than 200 in the last three).

However, look at the quarterbacks they faced in those four contests: Tennessee’s gimpy Ryan Tannehill, the Jets’ Zach Wilson, Houston’s Davis Mills and Jeff Driskel, and Titans third-stringer Joshua Dobbs.

Besides, even with the improvement, Jacksonville still finished 28th in the NFL in pass defense.

Rather than start with Allen, let’s first discuss his counterpart in Sunday’s first wild card game: The Dolphins are expected to start third-stringer Skylar Thompson in place of starter Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) and backup Teddy Bridgewater (broken finger).

While Tagovailoa has been ruled out, there’s a chance Bridgewater will play. It won’t matter, because neither he nor Thompson are going to put up enough points to make this a competitive game.

Which brings us back to Allen: He’s definitely got the skills to rush for 50 yards Sunday — and a lot more. And the Dolphins know it, as Buffalo’s star quarterback carved them up for 77 rushing yards on just 10 carries a month ago.

Allen also had 47 yards on eight carries in Miami back in Week 3.

But the Bills needed every bit of Allen’s wizardry in those contests, both of which came down to the final seconds and were decided by a total of five points.

This third matchup? It has all the makings of a Buffalo blowout.

So let’s take a look at Allen’s rushing numbers in the Bills’ nine lopsided victories this year (games decided by eight points or more): 56, 10, 42, 49, 7, 20, 47, 41, 16

Allen’s rushing totals in games decided by four points or less: 47, 70, 32, 86, 84, 78, 77.

Pretty clear pattern there, no?

Now, if you believe the Dolphins can somehow hang around in this contest, by all means — fade this prediction and take Allen to go Over his rushing total. We, however, don’t believe Miami has any shot at keeping things close.

We also don’t believe Allen is dumb enough to take unnecessary injury risks, what with his team being a legit Super Bowl contender.

Barkley missed most of the 2020 campaign after tearing his ACL in Week 2, then posted below-average numbers in his comeback last year.

This season? He was absolutely sensational for the Giants. But he did most of his damage on the ground, rushing for 1,312 yards (fourth-most in the NFL).

As a receiver out of the backfield, he caught just 57 passes for 338 yards — an average of 3.6 catches and 21.1 yards per contest. And he had more than three receptions in just seven of his 16 games.

So why play this particular Barkley prop? Because he and his quarterback, Daniel Jones, played a leisurely father and son-like game of catch in Minnesota in Week 16.

Jones and Barkley hooked up eight times (on 10 targets), with the running back accounting for 49 of his quarterback’s 334 passing yards.

Might the Vikings pay a bit more attention to Barkley when Jones drops back on Sunday? Sure. Will it matter? We doubt it.

Minnesota’s pass defense was atrocious all season long — only the Titans (274.8) gave up more air yards than the Vikings (265.6).

Among the running backs (besides Barkley) who had more than three receptions against Minnesota this season: the Patriots Rhamondre Stevenson (9), the Cowboys’ Tony Pollard (6), the Jets’ Ty Johnson (6) and Zonovan Knight (5), the Packers’ Aaron Jones (5), the Bears’ David Montgomery (4), and the Cardinals’ Eno Benjamin (4).

Look for New York to replicate the offensive game plan it used in the 27-24 loss at the Vikings two weeks ago — that includes getting the ball to Barkley in space early and often.

Our theory behind this prop mirrors that of our Josh Allen rushing prop recommendation: With Lamar Jackson out for the Ravens, Burrow and the heavily favored Bengals shouldn’t have to do much to win this quick-turnaround rematch between division rivals.

That certainly was the case last week when Burrow threw for just 215 yards in a never-in-doubt 27-16 division-clinching home win over Baltimore.

In fact, just like Allen and his rushing numbers, Burrow has pronounced splits when it comes to his passing yardage totals in close games versus blowouts.

In Cincinnati’s last four double-digit victories, Burrow has thrown for 206, 239, 200 and 215 yards. In the last six wins decided by a touchdown or less, he threw for 217, 300, 355, 270, 286 and 375 yards.

That 217-yard outlier? It was in Week 5 against … the Ravens (who held on for a 19-17 win).

So Burrow has put up nearly identical passing totals (215 and 217) in two games against Baltimore — which is a bit surprising, because the Ravens’ secondary is their weak defensive link.

Regardless of the opponent or the score, Burrow’s MVP-caliber season didn’t conclude with a bunch of huge passing days. He finished with more than 239 passing yards just four times in his last nine contests — and just once in the last three.

As with the Bills and Allen, the Bengals’ hopes for a Super Bowl title rest almost entirely on Burrow. So there’s no need for him to drop back and chuck the ball around the field for four quarters in a game Cincy should win handily.

Burrow likely will put up some yards early. But once the game is in hand, he’ll do a lot of handing off and finish with somewhere in the neighborhood of 240 passing yards — well below this number at Caesars Sportsbook.

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