Seahawks vs. 49ers prediction: Buck the odds and back underdog Seattle

The San Francisco 49ers are rolling, healthy and opening the postseason at home against a division rival they manhandled twice in the regular season.

The Seattle Seahawks played sub-.500 football over the final two months of the campaign, needed overtime to beat a broken-down opponent at home in a must-win season finale and backed into the playoffs courtesy of the Detroit Lions.

Beyond that, San Francisco went 8-2 ATS during its season-ending 10-game winning streak. Seattle has covered one point spread since early November. All that only partially explains why the 49ers are a double-digit favorite going into Saturday’s NFL wild card game against the Seahawks.

So only a fool would recommend betting on the team that’s lucky to be here instead of the team that many believe will win the Super Bowl.

Well, we’re not wearing a dunce cap for nothing. Here’s our Seahawks vs. 49ers prediction for the opener of this weekend’s six-game NFL wild card slate.

Odds updated as of 1 a.m. ET on Jan. 13.

27-7 and 21-13. Those were the final scores of San Francisco’s two victories over the Seahawks at opposite ends of the regular season.

Two. That’s the number of starting quarterbacks the 49ers used in those wins. Jimmy Garoppolo was under center in Week 2 at home, while last-pick-of-the-draft rookie Brock Purdy led the way in Week 15 in Seattle (his first career road start).

The latter victory is part of San Francisco’s ongoing 10-game winning streak. The Niners’ point differential during this run: +161

It’s also part of Seattle’s season-ending 3-5 SU/1-7 ATS slump. The Seahawks’ point differential during this funk: -15.

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In all honesty, it’s difficult to justify backing Seattle on Saturday. Almost all the numbers and intangibles favor the Niners. So does the talent, big time.

Sometimes in sports, though, teams and athletes overcome all those discrepancies, buck the odds and inexplicably outperform expectations.

Just ask the 2022 Philadelphia Phillies. And 2017 Philadelphia Eagles. And 1990 Buster Douglas.

No, we aren’t suggesting that the Seahawks will go to San Francisco and shock the NFL world. (Then again, upsets happen.)

What we are suggesting is this point spread is wildly inflated — because of all the aforementioned factors that favor the blistering-hot 49ers.

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Oddsmakers aren’t idiots. They knew the betting public would line up to wager on San Francisco, regardless of the number. So rest assured there’s a hefty tax that comes with laying the points in this contest.

That doesn’t mean the 49ers can’t win this game going away — they absolutely can. But did you know that only two of Seattle’s eight defeats this year were by double digits?

One was a 14-point loss to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs on Christmas Eve at Arrowhead Stadium (where only Josh Allen and the Bills won this year).

The other was the 20-point defeat in San Francisco in Week 2 — back before the Seahawks’ offense figured things out with new quarterback/Comeback Player of the Year candidate Geno Smith.

Seriously: Seattle scored a total of 24 points in its first two games against the Broncos and 49ers. From there, the Seahawks went on to tally at least 23 points in nine of their next 11 contests.

Yes, that run ended in the 21-13 home loss to the 49ers. In that game, Smith led the offense to just two field goals in the first 56½ minutes of action.

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Smith will have to do better than 13 points for Seattle to cover this number. But maybe not a lot better, as steady rain and brisk winds are expected to persist throughout the game (bad weather tends to be an equalizer on the gridiron).

Of course, wet and windy conditions could be a problem for the Seahawks, because Smith has played fast and loose with the football in recent weeks. He tossed seven interceptions in his last seven games (but was turnover-free against San Francisco in Week 15).

If the field is as sloppy as anticipated, you can be sure Seattle coach Pete Carroll will be even more conservative with his game plan than he already intended to be.

In fact, Carroll is a big X-factor in this contest. He obviously knows how to navigate high-pressure playoff football while maximizing his talent and masking his deficiencies.

Carroll knows full well competing against this loaded 49ers team will require an outside-the-box, creative approach on all sides of the football. We trust him to push the right buttons to ensure the Seahawks are competitive throughout.

As for the 49ers, there isn’t much negative to say about a team that has won 10 consecutive games.

But it’s not like there aren’t some concerns. First, while Purdy has been outstanding in playing miles above anyone’s reasonable expectations, the playoffs are a different beast for any rookie quarterback.

Can Mr. Irrelevant rise to the occasion, deal with the elements (which he hasn’t had to do since taking over for Garoppolo) and play mistake-free football in a winner-take-all atmosphere? We’ll see.

Also, San Francisco’s top-ranked defense is just two weeks removed from getting torched by Jarrett Stidham and the Raiders in a 37-34 overtime win. So that stop unit, while great, isn’t infallible.

Finally, here are a couple of interesting trends (courtesy of Action Network) that favor Seattle:

So swallow hard and grab the points with the Seahawks at Caesars Sportsbook — one of the few offering Seattle +10 — in what should be a low-scoring contest.

» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.