Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes top Super Bowl MVP odds. Are there any value bets behind them?

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts lost out on a chance to win the 2022-23 NFL MVP when he suffered a sprained shoulder that cost him two games late in the season.

Those missed games opened the door for Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who was running neck-and-neck with Hurts in the MVP odds race when the latter suffered his injury in Week 15.

With Hurts on the sidelines, Mahomes promptly slammed that door short and is a near lock to win his second MVP when the award is handed out next week.

However, with the Eagles and Chiefs meeting in Super Bowl 57 on Feb. 12, Hurts has an opportunity to best Mahomes for what many would argue is a more important honor: Super Bowl MVP.

More important because the player who takes home that award also gets a Super Bowl ring.

If you believe the Super Bowl MVP odds market, that player is going to be Hurts. The Eagles’ versatile quarterback is favored over Mahomes at most sportsbooks (albeit slightly).

Below are the latest Super Bowl MVP odds, along with a breakdown on how the betting action is trending.

Odds updated as of 11:30 a.m. ET on Feb. 1.

The Super Bowl MVP wagering market has had Hurts and Mahomes among the top three favorites since odds were first posted prior to NFL Wild Card Weekend.

That’s hardly a surprise, since both the Eagles and Chiefs were the top seeds in the NFC and AFC, respectively.

Heading into Sunday’s NFC and AFC Championship Games, Mahomes was favored slightly over Hurts at BetMGM (+325 to +350) and FanDuel (+320 to +350). However, the two were +350 co-favorites at Caesars Sportsbook.

As of Tuesday night, though, Hurts was in the catbird’s seat at all three sportsbooks. He remains so at BetMGM and Caesars, but FanDuel now has Mahomes (+120) a hair ahead of Hurts (+125).

FanDuel’s switch is interesting, as Philadelphia remains narrowly favored to beat Kansas City.

But the fact both quarterbacks are alone at the top of the Super Bowl MVP odds board makes total sense, given that the winning quarterback usually nabs the hardware.

Key word there, though: usually.

In Super Bowl 56 in Los Angeles last year, the honor went to Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp, who had eight catches for 92 yards and two touchdowns (including the game-winner).

Kupp became just the third non-quarterback to win Super Bowl MVP since the 2009-10 game. The others: Seattle Seahawks middle-linebacker Malcolm Smith in Super Bowl 48 (2013-14) and New England Patriots wide receiver Julian Edelman in Super Bowl 53 (2018-19).

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In all, quarterbacks have won 31 of the 56 Super Bowl MVPs (55%), including 10 of the last 15.

Which is why there’s such a huge gap between Hurts and Mahomes — the only two players with single-digit Super Bowl MVP odds — and the rest of the field.

Again, though, that doesn’t mean a Kupp, Edelman or Smith can’t come from down the odds board, steal the award and deliver a nice profit for bettors.

If you saw our early prop bet recommendations article, you know we made a case for wagering on the current third choice to win Super Bowl MVP: Kansas City tight end Travis Kelce.

Kelce currently sports odds ranging from a low of +1000 (Caesars Sportsbook) to a high of +1300 (FanDuel).

No tight end has ever won the award, but 10 wide receivers have (including five this century). We mention that because that’s what Kelce basically is — a wide receiver trapped in a tight end’s body.

Kelce was Mahomes’ top target throughout the regular season (career-high 110 catches, 1,338 yards, career-high 12 touchdowns). And that hasn’t changed in the playoffs, as Kelce and Mahomes have connected 21 times (on 25 targets) for 176 yards and three TDs in two games.

If the Chiefs win, it’s quite likely that Kelce will be a big reason why.

The same could be said for the two players slotted right behind Kelce on the NFL MVP odds board: Eagles receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.

Then again, Philadelphia got by just fine in its first two playoff games without much help from Brown or Smith. The Eagles pummeled the New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers by a combined score of 69-14.

Because Philly had such big early leads, Hurts didn’t do a whole lot of throwing. Which means Smith and (particularly) Brown didn’t do a whole lot of producing.

Smith combined for eight catches, 97 yards and one touchdown in the two wins. However, Brown has just seven total catches (on 14 targets) for 50 yards.

Still, Brown ranks fourth in Super Bowl MVP odds at +1200 (Caesars) and +1400 (BetMGM and FanDuel). Smith is next at +2600 (FanDuel) and +2500 (BetMGM and Caesars).

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A position group that’s notably absent near the top of the Super Bowl MVP odds board: running back.

Of the tailbacks listed, Philadelphia’s Miles Sanders has the shortest odds at all three sportsbooks, ranging from a low of +2400 at FanDuel — a big drop from his +3700 odds there Tuesday night — to a high of +3000 at BetMGM.

Then come Kansas City’s Isiah Pachecho and Jerick McKinnon. The duo has identical +5000 odds at both BetMGM and FanDuel, while Caesars has Pacheco (+4000) ahead of McKinnon (+6000).

Is anyone among that trio worthy of a bet — or maybe even Eagles backup Kenneth Gainwell (+13000 at FanDuel)? Depends where you stand in the history versus “due” argument.

Only four running backs in Super Bowl history have won MVP, with all four occurring between 1983-98.

So a better long shot option is probably a defensive player — either one with a penchant for sacking quarterbacks or forcing turnovers. Or both.

Philadelphia’s Haason Reddick had 16 of his team’s NFL-best 70 sacks this season, which tied for the second most in the league. Kansas City defensive tackle Chris Jones (15.5) was directly behind Reddick on the sack list.

Reddick’s best Super Bowl MVP odds are at Caesars (+4000), while Jones has the same +5000 odds at all three books.

On the turnover front, Eagles safety Chauncey Gardner-Johnson tied for the league lead with six interceptions. He’s the only player on either team with more than three picks.

However, Gardner-Johnson is a +15000 long shot at BetMGM and FanDuel, while Caesars has him at +20000.

The only other defensive players with MVP odds of less than 100-to-1: The Eagles’ Brandon Graham (+7500 at FanDuel) and Darius Slay (+8500 at FanDuel), and the Chiefs’ Frank Clark (+7500 at Caesars).

BetMGM on Tuesday reported that Mahomes is responsible for 22.3% of all Super Bowl MVP dollars wagered at the book. That’s tops among all players, including those whose teams have been eliminated.

Hurts is third in money at 13.8%, behind Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow (17.9%).

Burrow, whose Bengals lost Sunday’s AFC title game in Kansas City, is first when it comes to Super Bowl MVP wagers at BetMGM (13.8%). He’s followed by Hurts (9.2%), Mahomes (7.8%), San Francisco running back Christian McCaffrey (7.1%) and Kelce (6.9%).

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.