Bet on Flyers as small home underdog against struggling Sabres in Wednesday’s matchup

It’s way too early for “must-win” games, but Wednesday night’s showdown between the Philadelphia Flyers and Buffalo Sabres does carry higher-than-normal stakes for a contest on Nov. 1. For the Flyers, it’s the opportunity to get back on track after their impressive start to the season hit a snag.

The Sabres, meanwhile, are at risk of falling behind the pace in a packed Eastern Conference. That won’t sit well with a fanbase who was sold plenty of hope and hype in the offseason.

The Sabres are a slight road favorite in Philadelphia on Wednesday night.

The narrative surrounding the Sabres before the season was that their offense would be a force and their success hinged on whether or not the defense and goaltending could be effective enough to make their offensive output count. Things have not worked out that way to this point.

In a surprising turn of events, it’s Buffalo’s offense that is missing the mark.

While the Sabres’ underlying defensive numbers aren’t great — they rank 17th in expected goals against and 26th in high-danger chances allowed — they are only conceding three goals per game, which should be more than good enough for a team with this much offensive firepower to get results. That just hasn’t been the case though, as the Sabres are really struggling to get anything going in their opponents’ zone.

Not only do the Sabres rank 19th in goals per game, but they’re 21st in expected goals created and 20th in high-danger chances for at 5-on-5. Adding to the problems is that Buffalo’s power play is only clipping at 10.7% through nine games.

» READ MORE: Should bettors believe in the Flyers after a surprising start to begin the NHL season?

The Flyers were not expected to make any noise in 2023-24, but a strong start had some folks wondering if Philadelphia could be better than expected this season. A couple of losses in a row have slowed everyone’s roll, but this home-and-home with the inconsistent Sabres could offer the Flyers a chance to get back on track.

And while Buffalo has struggled to drive play at 5-on-5, the Flyers have been suprisingly good at pushing the puck in the right direction. Philadelphia ranks eighth in the NHL in expected goals percentage and is fifth in high-danger scoring chance rate. There’s nothing flukey going on here.

As the 82-game season wears on you’d expect the Sabres to climb past the Flyers, but the way things are going right now you’d have to say Philadelphia is the value side in this contest.

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