Bet on Coyotes as road underdogs against Maple Leafs in Thursday’s matchup

The Toronto Maple Leafs saw their seven-game winning streak come to an end on Tuesday night but they’re in good position to start a new one with a home matchup against the Arizona Coyotes on Thursday night. Arizona is winless in its last 13 contests (0-11-2) and has a -29 goal difference in that span.

The Leafs are -250 favorites to hand the Coyotes their 14th consecutive loss on Thursday night.

While the Coyotes have been trending in the wrong direction for a month, the Leafs have picked their game up considerably. After an uneven stretch following the all-star break, Toronto won seven on the spin before falling to Vegas on Tuesday night and now has a firm grip on a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.

That said, this does set up to be a potential banana skin for the Leafs. While Toronto’s form and statistical portfolio has improved of late, it is dealing with a cluster of injuries on the blueline and that will mean that Sheldon Keefe will have to play six left-handed defensemen for the second game in a row. That may not sound like a huge deal -- and it’s usually not when it’s just one rearguard playing his off-side -- but when you have three pairs coping with it, then things get really complicated.

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Whether or not the Coyotes can take advantage of Toronto’s injury-riddled blueline remains to be seen, but it should make the job a bit easier. And it also should be noted that Arizona really hasn’t been playing all that poorly of late. It’s hard to defend a team that’s lost 13 on the bounce, but the numbers suggest that the Coyotes have not played nearly as bad as their record implies.

Over their last 10 games the Coyotes have posted a +1.2 expected goal difference at 5-on-5 but their actual goal differential is -8, which tells you a couple of things. For one, the Desert Dogs are due for some positive regression. And secondly, Arizona’s goaltending has let it down of late. If those two factors start to turn, the Coyotes should start winning some games.

It’s not much fun to bet a team in the middle of a righteous slide, but the value is on Arizona on Thursday night.

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