Flames vs. Golden Knights prediction: Calgary offers value as road underdog in Vegas

The Vegas Golden Knights had their way with the Calgary Flames during the franchise’s first five NHL campaigns, winning 10 of 13 meetings through last season. That includes a perfect 7-for-7 effort at home.

Cumulative final score in those seven battles in Sin City: Vegas 30, Calgary 8.

So why are the Golden Knights just a modest favorite against the Flames heading into Thursday’s game at T-Mobile Arena on the Las Vegas Strip? Well, for starters, Calgary sniped the VGK north of the border back in October, winning 3-2.

More importantly, rookie goaltender Logan Thompson, who stopped 37 of 40 shots in Calgary, is on the shelf with an injury. So is captain Mark Stone, who likely is out for the year following back surgery.

Additionally, Thompson’s backup, Adin Hill, has an undisclosed injury and will miss his second straight game. That means third-stringer Laurent Brossoit will be minding the net for the Knights once again Thursday.

So is this the night the Flames finally leave Vegas a winner? That’s the way we’re leaning with our Flames vs. Golden Knights prediction.

Odds updated as of 3 p.m. ET on Feb. 23.

Let’s be clear from the jump here: It’s difficult to make a case for Calgary in this contest. And not just because the franchise has yet to hit the jackpot in Vegas.

The Flames are playing a back-to-back following Wednesday’s 6-3 win at Phoenix. Yes, Calgary has won its last three in this situation, all on the road against Pacific Division clubs (two regulation wins at Seattle, one overtime win at Anaheim).

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However, the Flames have posted consecutive victories — regardless of days off — just once since mid-January (span of 14 games). And they’ve done it just four times since a three-game winning streak in early December (span of 32 contests).

On top of that, Vegas hasn’t lost a game in regulation since a 4-1 defeat at the New York Rangers on Jan. 27. The Knights are 5-0-2 since, and they’ve won a four straight at home (matching a season-high).

And yet we’re still backing Calgary. And it’s mostly because of Vegas’ goaltending issues.

In reality, the Knights are down to their fourth-string netminder. Top goaltender Robin Lehner had offseason hip surgery and won’t play at all this year, which left the job to Thompson.

The unheralded rookie was a huge surprise in going 20-13-2 with a 2.66 goals-against average and making the All-Star team. Then Thompson injured his groin earlier this month, giving way to Hill. A journeyman backup, Hill also has played above expectations, going 14-5-1 with a 2.55 GAA. That includes an ongoing six-game winning streak.

Well, now Hill is banged up, forcing Vegas to turn to Brossoit, another journeyman backup who has appeared in 99 NHL games in parts of nine seasons (including 24 games for the Knights in 2021-22). Brossoit was decent in his season debut Tuesday at Chicago, turning aside 37 of 39 shots. But the 39th shot was a power-play goal that tied the game 2-2 with 55 seconds remaining. The lowly Blackhawks went on to win 3-2 in a shootout.

Now Brossoit goes from facing an offense that is tied for the fewest goals scored in the NHL to an offense that ranks 14th. And that offense is running hot, as Calgary has potted 45 goals in its last 12 games.

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Also, going back to Jan. 8, the Flames have lit the lamp at least three times in nine of 11 roadies. In all, they scored 40 goals during this 11-game road stretch (3.64 per contest).

Despite the back-to-back situation, there’s every reason to believe Calgary will have success against Brossoit. So the only question is, will Flames goalie Jacob Markstrom be up to the task against a hit-and-miss Knights offense (five goals or more in three of its last 10 games; one or two goals in the other seven)?

We believe so, as Markstrom had last night off. Yes, the veteran surrendered four goals in his last outing against Philadelphia on Monday and two games prior at Ottawa. However, Markstrom has allowed more than three goals in consecutive starts just once all year — and that was back in early November.

Much like the first Flames-Knights meeting in October, this one figures to be tight throughout. However, the betting value at BetMGM lies with the road underdog.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.