Hurricanes vs. Panthers series prediction: How we’re betting the NHL’s Eastern Conference finals

We have a Hurricanes vs. Panthers prediction for the series as Carolina and Florida prepare to battle for the Eastern Conference and a spot in the Stanley Cup Finals.

Given the Panthers needed a miracle late-regular season run and Game 7 overtime goal in round one to get here, it’s easy to diagnose them as overvalued. Of course, the Hurricanes dismantling the Devils doesn’t help Florida’s cred in the market, either.

However, this is a fascinating series to break down. Each team has unique advantages on each side.

Here are three betting angles are worth diving into.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook, current at the time of writing and subject to change.

Series ML: Hurricanes (-145) vs. Panthers (+120)

Series Spread: Hurricanes -1.5 (+125) vs. Panthers +1.5 (-195)

Series Total Goals: Over 34.5 (-114) | Under 34.5 (-106)

Carolina dominated the regular season and is now dominating the playoffs. Per Money Puck, the Hurricanes have skated to the second-highest Expected Goals Share (54.2%) during this playoff run, only trailing Dallas.

Carolina lost the Corsi For battle once in its second-round series, during Game 3′s loss. Otherwise, the Hurricanes boasted a Corsi For percentage above 56% in their final three victories, including 60% in Game 5′s closeout win.

There’s no doubt that the Hurricanes are the better two-way on-ice team. The Panthers played better opponents, but their underlying metrics are much weaker (47% Expected Goals Share, per Money Puck).

» READ MORE: Our three favorite long shots at this week's PGA Championship

That said, the Panthers play fast, are incredibly frisky and have an unexpected goaltending advantage.

What happened to Sergei Bobrovsky? He looked like a shell of himself during the regular season but has since turned back the clock — the two-time Vezina Winner is playing like a two-time Vezina Winner.

Bobrovsky leads all playoff goalies in Goals Saved Above Expected, with 9.3. The only goalie that comes close to that number is the ever-dominant Igor Shesterkin.

Carolina goalie Frederik Anderson is third among playoff goalies, but his 3.9 Goals Saved Above Expected mark shows just how dominant Bobrovsky has been.

So, this Eastern Conference Final is a fascinating schematic matchup. But, unfortunately, the series betting lines are fair, and I show no value in the numbers.

First, target overs. The total for Game 1 is set at 5.5, juiced to the over. That number is far too low, and I highly recommend a bet on the over.

These two aggressive, attacking hockey teams make their money on the offensive end. Florida ranks third in Expected Goals during this playoff run, while Carolina ranks sixth. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes are ninth in playoff Expected Goals Allowed, and the Panthers are second-to-last (ahead of only Seattle).

Moreover, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bobrovsky regress in the next round. New Jersey’s Akira Schmid was phenomenal in Round 1 but was promptly scorched by these Hurricanes.

This brings me to my second point, target Carolina early.

The Hurricanes play a unique brand of hockey, an attacking, aggressive man-to-man style. It takes an adjustment period, and these Panthers have already fallen behind 3-1 in a series during these panthers.

» READ MORE: Eagles favored in 14 games, open as three-point ‘dogs in Super Bowl rematch with Chiefs

And finally, target Florida late.

The Panthers never give up and will adjust to the Hurricanes as the series progresses. They also have the speed to keep up with Carolina across six or seven games, and I expect this series to go six or seven games.

So, after a few early Carolina wins, we should be able to bet Florida as solid underdogs in the later games.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.