Oilers vs. Golden Knights prediction: Edmonton ‘Over’ train will keep rolling

Sometimes when wagering on sports — certainly not all the time, but sometimes — being a “square” bettor pays off.

Look no further than the 2022-23 Edmonton Oilers — more specifically, their Over/Under totals.

With superstar Connor McDavid leading an unstoppable offense that’s averaging nearly four goals per game, the Oilers have been like a broken cash machine for Over bettors for five solid months.

Of course, oddsmakers have adjusted — and, in fact, over-adjusted — Edmonton-related totals to account for the team’s scoring prowess (and lack of defense).

It hasn’t mattered a lick, as the Over is still a remarkable 50-21-3 in Oilers games this season.

So please forgive us for going the “square” route with Thursday’s Oilers vs. Golden Knights prediction. After all, it’s difficult to walk away from a broken cash machine.

Odds updated as of 3:15 p.m. ET on March 28.

This month. Since the All-Star break. During calendar-year 2023. Going back to the beginning of the season.

Pick a starting point, any starting point — the data and the facts don’t lie: Wagering on Edmonton games to go Over the total has been an insanely profitable endeavor.

Here are just a few examples that support such a statement:

What about the fact Edmonton played Monday night in Arizona, where it pulled out a 5-4 victory and cashed the Over for a fifth straight contest? Well, here are the final scores of the Oilers’ last four games when playing on the second night of a back-to-back, as well as the location of those contests:

7-5 (road), 6-2 (road), 4-3 (road), 2-1 (at home on New Year’s Eve), 6-3 (road), 5-3 (road).

See a pattern there?

Of course, Edmonton isn’t solely responsible for all these high-scoring games. Because they play at such a high tempo and have so many gifted shooters, the Oilers often get caught napping on the other end of the ice.

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The team’s below-average defense, coupled with often-leaky goaltending, is why Edmonton allows the 11th-most goals per game in the NHL (3.32).

As for the Golden Knights, they’ve been up-and-down in the scoring department this season. They rank just above league average in scoring (3.26 per game, 15th). And despite a rash of goaltending injuries, Vegas is 10th in goals-against (2.77 per game).

Still, all three of the Knights’ games against the Oilers this season — including Sunday’s contest in Edmonton — have ended with the same score: 4-3 (including two overtime battles).

And that’s exactly why we’re recommending paying the extra juice on Over 6.5 at FanDuel rather than playing Over 7 at another sportsbook. It’s just a prudent investment move.

That said, we won’t be at all shocked if this approaches (or exceeds) double-digit goals. After all, Vegas is expected to put Jonathan Quick in net.

The veteran goaltender, who was acquired at the trade deadline, has been decent since joining the Knights. But he still has a ghastly 3.4 goals-against average and .882 save percentage for the season.

You know what makes those numbers look even worse? Quick has yet to face McDavid (60 goals, 80 assists), Leon Draisaitl (46 goals, 68 assists) and the Oilers this season.

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The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.