Buy low on the Panthers in a pivotal Stanley Cup Game 5 vs. the Golden Knights

The betting market has sent a pretty clear message ahead of Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Final: The magic has run out for the Florida Panthers.

Florida has lost three of the first four games of the Stanley Cup Final by a combined score of 17-9 and it’s not like the scoreline has flattered Vegas at all. The Golden Knights have been full value for their 3-1 series lead and now get a chance to hoist the Stanley Cup in front of their fans on Tuesday night.

Not that they needed a boost with they way they’ve been playing, but Vegas will receive one for Game 5 and beyond as Florida could be without Matthew Tkachuk on Tuesday night.

There’s no question that the Knights are in the driver’s seat in this series and the bookies have reacted to reflect that notion. Vegas is a -178 favorite to win Game 5 at BetMGM and is -1400 to win the series.

Finding value in this game isn’t really about the X’s and O’s or the matchup. It’s much more about your thoughts on the adjustment made in the betting market between Game 2, which was the last contest played in Vegas, and Game 5.

Game 2, which took place last Monday night at T-Mobile Arena, closed with the Golden Knights as a -134 favorite. That game saw Vegas rout Florida, 7-2, to take a 2-0 series lead. Since then, the Knights earned a split on the road and have generally outplayed the Cats along the way.

» READ MORE: Check out our favorite goal-scorer props for Game 5

Throw in the injury to Tkachuk and you can easily see why it seems like everyone is abandoning ship on the Panthers. Once dubbed a ‘team of destiny,’ now Florida is unfancied in the betting market.

But is a 44-cent move from Game 2 to Game 5 an overreaction?

You can make an argument that it looks right given how this series has played out, but we’ve seen this kind of thing over and over again in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. One team builds momentum, catches some breaks and everyone talks about the series as if it’s a foregone conclusion. That sentiment seeps into the betting market, causing it to over-adjust.

Not only have we seen this phenomenon in the Stanley Cup Final already, but we also saw it twice in the same series in Round 1 between the New York Rangers and New Jersey Devils — the market moved a ton after the Rangers won the first two games of that series in New Jersey and then adjusted the other way when the Devils won three in a row.

Perhaps Florida can’t overcome the injury to Tkachuk and beat the in-form Golden Knights, but purely from a betting perspective it’s easy to see where the value is in this matchup. Buy low on the Panthers on Tuesday night.

The Bet: Florida Panthers +145 (BetMGM)

» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.