Back Ole Miss’ value to win the SEC and hit the over on its win total prop

In Lane Kiffin’s fourth year as head coach at Ole Miss, the Rebels appear poised for a breakout season in the SEC.

Ole Miss put together a monstrous transfer class, ranking first in the country, per 247 Sports, to go with a ton of talent already in place. As a result, the Rebels could make some postseason noise this fall.

They have the third-best odds to win the SEC (+650 at DraftKings), ahead of Alabama (+750) and behind only Georgia (+200) and Texas (+300). They are +1500 to win the national championship and are -130 to make the College Football Playoff. Their win total is priced at over/under 9.5.

Let’s take a look at Ole Miss’ roster and schedule to find out if there’s any value in the futures market.

2024 Transfers and Returning Production (TARP): +2.5 offense, -2 defense, +0.5 net

Key additions: RB Henry Parrish Jr. (Miami), WR Antwane Wells Jr. (South Carolina), OG Julius Buelow (Washington), OG Nate Kalepo (Washington), OT Diego Pounds (North Carolina), ED Princely Umanmielen (Florida), ED Chris Hardie (Jacksonville State), DL Walter Nolen (Texas A&M), LB Chris Paul Jr. (Arkansas), CB Trey Amos (Alabama), CB Isaiah Hamilton (Houston), CB Brandon Turnage (Tennessee)

Key losses: RB Quinshon Judkins, OG Quincy McGee, OG Jeremy James, OT Victor Curne, ED Cedric Johnson, ED Isaac Ukwu, LB Ashanti Cistrunk, LB Jeremiah Jean-Baptiste, CB Deantre Prince, CB Zamari Walton, S Daijahn Anthony

Coming off his best college campaign yet, Jaxson Dart is back for his senior season. In 2023, he finished with 23 touchdowns to just five interceptions and a stellar 9.3 yards per attempt. He’s priced as one of the frontrunners for the Heisman this fall, with +1400 odds on DraftKings.

Dart has plenty of weapons to work with in Oxford. Tre Harris is a top projected wide receiver for the 2025 NFL Draft, and he’s coming off a near 1,000-yard season. Antwane “Juice” Wells Jr. was limited to just two games last year, but he’s a big-time playmaker with alignment versatility. The Rebels have to replace Quinshon Judkins, who had more than 1,300 yards from scrimmage and 17 total touchdowns last season, but they added three running backs in the portal.

The offensive line struggled last season, but at least three new starters strengthened the group in the portal. At SEC Media Days, Nick Saban said, “I think this is the first time Ole Miss can really match up up front” with the big boys in the conference.

» READ MORE: Fade Georgia’s college football win totals during the 2024 season, despite being title favorites

Pete Golding is back for his second season as defensive coordinator, and Kiffin helped him secure some shiny new toys to play with this fall.

Walter Nolen, the top-ranked defensive lineman in his high school recruiting class, leads a loaded transfer haul on the defensive side of the ball. Princely Umanmielen (7 sacks) and Chris Hardie (8.5 sacks) will help provide more juice to the pass rush.

A former safety and defensive backs coach, Golding has his fingerprints all over the Rebels’ secondary. Ole Miss landed several players in the portal for him to work with, including three new expected starters at cornerback: Amos, Hamilton, and Turnage. Safeties Trey Washington and John Saunders are back for their respective senior seasons.

At first glance, the Rebels have a schedule that looks favorable. They start with four non-conference games, three of which are in Oxford. They’ll likely be double-digit favorites over Furman, Middle Tennessee, Wake Forest and Georgia Southern.

The Rebels only face two of the top seven teams in odds to win the SEC. In November, they have to face Georgia, the favorites to win the conference, but the Rebels benefit from that being a home game. It might be the only game Ole Miss is an underdog all season.

The Rebels’ most challenging road game is likely against LSU, and Death Valley is always a tough place to visit, but the Tigers lost reigning Heisman winner Jayden Daniels to the NFL. Ole Miss also plays five of the bottom six teams in SEC odds.

The Rebels have won 10-plus games in two of the past three seasons, and they’re set up to accomplish that goal again this fall. I’m betting on them winning more than 9.5 games this season, and I’m projecting them to make the CFP, so I’d grab that at -115 odds on bet365.

However, I’m not stopping there. I believe the Rebels have a chance to make some serious noise in the SEC this fall, and I’m grabbing a future on them to win the conference at +750. Ideally, we can get Ole Miss into the conference championship game, at which point we can hedge that number.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.