Bet this four-way same-game-parlay in favor of the USMNT in Copa América matchup with Panama

The United States will continue its Copa América campaign on Thursday night when it faces Panama at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. Both teams are familiar with one another as members of CONCACAF.

Last July, with the score level at 1-1 after 30 minutes of extra time, Panama advanced to the Gold Cup final with a 5-4 penalty shootout victory. However, the United States fielded a weaker team at that competition, opting to feature players in its domestic league instead.

This matchup could have an entirely different feel, as Copa America is widely regarded as a much more prestigious tournament.

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Panama avoided a shutout against Uruguay with a Michael Murillo goal in the 94th minute before losing 3-1.

While Panama generally plays a more attacking 3-4-3 formation, against Uruguay, manager Thomas Christiansen set his team up in a 5-4-1 shell. However, against the United States, Panama could return to their 3-4-3 shape.

After all, Los Canaleros probably wasn’t expecting to get a result against Uruguay.

Adalberto Carrasquilla will probably be the player to watch for Panama. Carrasquilla is often the table-setter for his teammates, linking the attack between the midfield and forward line.

The United States would be wise not to overlook the Panamanians, who have scored at least two goals in 13 of their last 22 matches. Moreover, they will likely be buoyed to face the U.S. after a semifinal victory in last year’s Gold Cup.

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The Stars and Stripes looked dominant in their Copa América opener against Bolivia. Captain America, Christian Pulisic, needed only three minutes to break the deadlock with a scintillating curling effort from just inside the box into the top right corner.

Folarin Balogun added a second goal in the 44th minute with a left-footed strike to beat goalkeeper Guillermo Viscarra.

Although the U.S. failed to add to its tally in the second half, it controlled the match in terms of possession, seeing 60.7% of the ball.

The Stars and Stripes can be particularly dangerous on the left side of the pitch, where Pulisic tends to operate. Antonee Robinson’s marauding runs up the left flank force opposing right-backs to decide whether they want to pick him up higher up the pitch.

As a result, Pulisic can then tuck in more centrally in front of goal. It’s no surprise both goals against Bolivia came from the left side.

There’s no question the U.S. will field a much stronger squad this time, as goalkeeper Matt Turner was the only player to feature against Bolivia and the Gold Cup loss to Panama.

The United States has a very favorable record against Panama (19-4-4) in 27 matches. However, we could see a high variance in this match, with both teams being very attack-minded.

While there’s certainly a potential for goals, a more robust starting 11 for the U.S. could restrict the Panamanian attack.

With the Americans priced as high as -295 on the three-way moneyline, we’ll have to get a bit creative to find our best bet in this match.

At bet365, we can take advantage of a same-game parlay that centers on the U.S. dominating the match. By combining Panama to score under three goals with the U.S. to win and finish with more shot attempts and shots on target, we can reduce our odds from -275 to -163.

After running the numbers, my model has identified multiple probable distributions when projecting the scoreline. Thus, I prefer to take a more conservative approach to give myself the best chance to cash a winning ticket.

Four-way same-game parlay (-163 at bet365)

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