Bet on the Panthers to pull ahead in ECF series against the Rangers in Game 5

Game 5 of what has been a highly entertaining Eastern Conference final between the Panthers and Rangers takes place Thursday night at Madison Square Garden.

The first two games at MSG were evenly contested, and it was fitting that the series shifted to Sunrise, Fla., tied at a game apiece. The following two matchups at Amerant Bank Arena were far less even, even with the Rangers stealing Game 3 in overtime.

Knotted at 2-2, the series now goes back to New York for a pivotal Game 5. Will the Rangers pull out the victory at home, or will the favored Panthers take a series lead back to Florida?

Let’s break down Thursday night’s game and provide a best bet.

Odds via DraftKings

Aside from the first period of each game, it was easy to see that the Panthers carried far more of the play in Games 3 and 4. The numbers agree, as Florida generated 76 shots on goal, compared to the Rangers’ total of just 39.

The Panthers also owned far more of the quality chances, as they led on high danger chances 33-14 in those two matchups.

Florida generated 7.59 expected goals to the Rangers’ 3.88 in those two games, and Igor Shesterkin’s brilliance was the main reason this series shifts back to New York tied.

By no means do the Rangers need to apologize for having the league’s best goalie in Shesterkin. Even accounting for how incredibly good Shesterkin is though, it’s hard to say the Rangers will win Thursday without putting together a far sharper performance in many key areas.

Their defensive core has had a tough time moving the puck out of their zone, which continues to lead to prolonged spells. Top defender Adam Fox is thought to be playing through a fairly significant injury, and that certainly looked accurate watching his performance in Game 4.

The subpar play from several Rangers defenders is being compounded by the fact that their forwards aren’t helping to drive play in the right direction the same way the Panthers’ top stars are. Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider are bringing far less to the table than Florida’s superstar forwards.

Aleksander Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk and Sam Reinhart in particular are all tremendous players away from the puck, which is greatly helping their side to shut down many of the Rangers’ top six forwards.

It seems highly likely the Panthers are going to continue to own much more of the play at even strength in this series.

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There is an argument to be made that the Rangers will bring a better effort at MSG after two ugly performances in Sunrise, particularly because they have been excellent on home ice this season.

However, it seems like a reach to say that changing venues is going to clean up all of the flaws in the Rangers game, especially because the Panthers are one of the best road teams in the NHL. Florida is 13-6 on the road over the last two postseasons for a 56.5% ROI.

It’s never going to be fun betting against the Rangers because they have proven capable of hanging around in every matchup. Still, this line does look short considering the way the Panthers should be able to carry the overall play, and at -125 there is value backing them to win.

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