Bet on Penn State to make a playoff push with new offensive and defensive coordinators

Penn State had another 10-win season in 2023 but failed to reach its ultimate goals. The Nittany Lions once again lost to Ohio State and Michigan before falling short in the Peach Bowl against Ole Miss. Coach James Franklin has done an excellent job of stabilizing this program, but can he ever get over the hump with Big Ten or even national championship contention?

Franklin hired two new coordinators this offseason — Andy Kotelnicki (offense) and Tom Allen (defense). He hopes those two coaches can help the Nittany Lions push for a Big Ten championship. Let’s look at how the roster and schedule size up to see if there’s any value in the futures markets for Penn State.

2024 Transfers and Returning Production (TARP): +0.5 offense, +4 defense, +4.5 net

Key additions: WR Julian Fleming (Ohio State), OT Nolan Rucci (Wisconsin), CB A.J. Harris (Georgia), CB Jalen Kimber (Florida)

Key losses: WR Keandre Lambert-Smith, TE Theo Johnson, OT Olu Fashanu, OT Caedan Wallace, C Hunter Nourzad, ED Chop Robinson, ED Adisa Isaac, CB Daequan Hardy, CB Kalen King

As a five-star recruit and the top-rated quarterback in the 2022 class, Drew Allar had high expectations last season. He threw for 25 touchdowns with just two interceptions, but his production was lacking in other areas. Allar’s 2.9% big-time throw rate was the sixth-lowest among Power Five passers with 300+ dropbacks.

Play-calling was a major culprit — he had the second-lowest deep pass attempt rate among that same sample. As a result, Penn State hired offensive coordinator Kotelnicki to unleash Allar’s significant arm talent. The former Kansas coach has helped lead a top-25 scoring offense in the last two seasons.

Unleashing the downfield passing game will help open up room for stud running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. The Nittany Lions are replacing three starters up front, which could create issues, but the run game should remain potent.

Former defensive coordinator Manny Diaz is the new head coach at Duke, and Franklin tabbed former Indiana coach Allen to replace him. There shouldn’t be a significant drop-off from a defense that allowed just 13.5 points per game last year, ranking third in the country.

Penn State lost edge rushers Chop Robinson and Adisa Isaac, but Abdul Carter and Dani Dennis-Sutton still provide plenty of juice at those spots. Defensive tackle Zane Durant is also expected to break out in his third year with the program.

Kevin Winston Jr. is the leader on the back end — he was PFF’s second-highest-graded safety in the country last year. Cornerback Cam Miller should be one of the best-returning players at his position in the country, and Georgia transfer A.J. Harris joins him in a formidable duo on the boundary.

I expect Penn State to coast to October without breaking a sweat. The Lions should be double-digit favorites for their first five games against West Virginia, Bowling Green, Kent State, Illinois, and UCLA. They beat the Illini by 17 points in Champaign last fall, and now that game is in Happy Valley. UCLA also travels east for that game with a first-year head coach in what looks like a Year Zero.

The schedule ramps up in difficulty from there. Road games against USC and Wisconsin both present unique challenges before Happy Valley hosts Ohio State. The Buckeyes are 3.5-point favorites in that game, but the Nittany Lions should be live dogs at home, depending on how things shake out.

The rest of the schedule appears fairly easy on paper, with home games against Washington and Maryland and road games against Purdue and Minnesota. Penn State dodges games against Oregon and Michigan, and with that OSU game at home, this schedule is set up nicely.

If you want to shoot for upside, I believe Penn State could be live to win the Big Ten. You can currently get +500 odds on them to win the conference at most sportsbooks, and if they can knock off Ohio State at home, they could steal the Buckeyes’ expected berth in the conference championship game.

I’d consider betting the over on 9.5 wins for this team, but it’s currently heavily juiced at -180 at Caesars. Instead, my favorite way to bet on the Nittany Lions is to make the College Football Playoff at -145 odds on FanDuel. If you want to reduce some juice, FanDuel allows you to parlay teams to make the CFP — a Penn State and Georgia parlay brings you down to -103 odds.

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