Back Braves’ Austin Riley to have a big game against the Phillies in series opener

With a 6-4 record over the last 10 games, the Phillies have grown their lead to 9.5 games over Atlanta in the NL East, and now own an 86.4% chance of winning the division, per FanGraphs.

This weekend’s three-game set at Truist Park provides an important opportunity for the Braves to cut into the deficit.

They are favored in Game 1 on Friday with Aaron Nola set to take on Max Fried in an excellent starting pitching matchup.

Odds via bet365

The Phillies have been effective against Fried in some critical matchups in recent years. However, they are looking less formidable at the moment with Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber missing from the lineup.

Philadelphia has hit to a wRC+ of just 87 versus lefties since Harper’s injury, albeit in a tiny sample of just 87 plate appearances. Still, the players remaining in Friday’s lineup have hit to a .313 average versus Fried historically.

Fried has pitched to a 3.43 expected ERA (xERA) this season with a 3.34 expected FIP (xFIP). He holds a modest Stuff+ rating of just 97, but his artful sequencing and pitching IQ continues to hold more weight than his arm talent (2.91 ERA).

Nola has been fantastic in his own right, with a 3.43 ERA across 107 2/3 innings. He owns an xFIP of 3.39 and an xERA of 3.40. He has been allowing slightly more hard contact of late with a 37% hard-hit rate and a .287 batting average allowed over the last month.

The Braves, who have struggled to a wRC+ of just 84 against right-handed pitching over the last 30 days, miss Ronald Acuna Jr.’s bat in the lineup.

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Mike Brumley, who was a hitting instructor in the Braves’ minor-league system from 2018-21 and a good friend and mentor to Austin Riley, died on June 15. Since then, Riley has gone on a tear, hitting to a 1.064 OPS and 192 wRC+. Riley has owned Nola historically, with a 1.180 OPS and .389 average in 54 plate appearances.

Given Riley’s tremendous recent form and his career splits against Nola, +130 looks like an excellent price to back him recording more than 1.5 total bases in Friday’s matchup. There also looks to be some value targeting Riley to record more total bases than Alec Bohm, who has hit to an average of just .200 versus Fried in 20 career plate appearances.

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