Back the Phillies’ money line against the Cubs at Wrigley Field on Wednesday night

Game 2 of the Phillies’ three-game set at Wrigley Field features an excellent starting pitching matchup.

Zack Wheeler (2.73 ERA, 105 2/3 IP) enters Wednesday’s matchup priced as the favorite to win the National League Cy Young (+200, bet365). He will face the Cubs rookie left-hander Shota Imanaga (3.07 ERA, 85 IP).

Here’s a breakdown of the matchup, along with a prediction and pick.

Odds via BetMGM

Wheeler has been a workhorse this season, pitching the eighth-most innings of any starter in baseball. His underlying results remain excellent as well, as he owns a 2.98 xERA and 3.47 xFIP.

He owns a Stuff+ rating of 106 this season, with a Location+ rating of 104. Over his last five starts, the Phillies right-hander has been hard-hit just 25% of the time.

Wheeler continues to do a good job of getting into pitcher-friendly counts with an excellent fastball and his ability to get batters to chase out of the zone. He has allowed a slug rate of just .198 in two-strike counts since last season, which is the fourth-best among qualified starters in that span.

The Cubs have hit to a wRC+ of 96 versus right-handed pitching over the last month with an OPS of .679. They hold the fourth-highest strikeout rate in the majors in that span at 25.6%. Mike Tauchman’s absence from the lineup has helped exacerbate their shaky offensive form, and his .773 OPS against righties will be missed in this matchup.

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After his incredible start to the season, Imanga has had issues as big-league hitters seem to be figuring him out to some extent. He has allowed a .288 batting average over his last five starts, with an ERA of 4.88.

His strikeout rate has been reduced to 21% over that span, and he has allowed an xBA of .272 with an xFIP of 4.71. He holds a Stuff+ rating of 92 this season, with a Location+ rating of 104.

The Phillies’ offensive upside versus lefties takes a hit with Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper out of the lineup. Still, they should feature six bats with above-average splits versus lefties. They hit to a wRC+ of 114 versus lefties over the last two weeks and a 114 wRC+ over the last 30 days.

With teams more prepared for Imanaga than earlier on in the season, Wheeler offers a relatively noteworthy edge in this matchup.

Given the Phillies have the far more potent offense, they deserve to be a larger favorite in this matchup.

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