Bet the Phillies’ money line on Friday night against the Diamondbacks

The Phillies have found their groove again after producing back-to-back rallies to extend their winning streak to three games. They have now won four of their last five games following a 3-11 start to the second half of the season.

After taking the series opener against the Diamondbacks, the Phillies will turn to their ace, Zack Wheeler, on Friday night. Wheeler was phenomenal in his last outing, pitching eight innings of shutout ball while allowing only two hits.

Arizona will counter with Ryne Nelson, who has probably pitched better than his 4.65 ERA. However, he’ll face the difficult challenge of trying to outperform Wheeler, who seems to thrive in this spot when he has a winning streak to protect.

Odds via Caesars

Wheeler is having another stellar season, posting an 11-5 record with a 2.77 ERA. While his advanced numbers point to a slight regression, a 3.00 xERA and 3.39 FIP would still put him in elite category.

He enters this game with a 5-2 mark and a 2.97 ERA in nine career starts against Arizona. According to Baseball Savant, this current Diamondbacks roster has 178 plate appearances against Wheeler but only a .204 batting average and a .268 xWOBA.

Wheeler predominantly uses his fastball (41.2%) and sinker (18.4%) to get ahead in the count. He boasts an elite first-pitch strike rate of 65%.

But while he doesn’t feature his secondary pitches (slider- 11.2%, cutter- 10.7%, curveball- 10.4% and splitter- 8%) as much, they each generate a putaway rate of at least 17%. Thus, Wheeler has plenty of options to finish hitters off when he gets to two strikes.

His slider will be particularly crucial against a Diamondbacks team that’s -22.5 runs below average (25th) when facing the off-speed pitch.

We’ve seen the odds shift toward the Diamondbacks after the Phillies opened as a -172 favorite. Those odds suggest an implied probability of 63.2%, which is simply too high against a quality team when many other factors can come into play.

There is some reason for Arizona fans to be optimistic heading into Nelson’s start. After all, his 3.69 FIP points to some positive regression, and the Diamondbacks have won each of his last six starts.

However, Philadelphia’s lineup will easily be the best offense he’s faced during this recent run, and the head-to-head numbers aren’t in his favor. In two regular-season appearances against Philadelphia, Nelson is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA. Moreover, in 48 plate appearances, the Phillies are hitting .386 against him with a .425 wOBA and .586 xSLG.

When Nelson came on in relief against the Phillies in the playoffs last year, he allowed three runs on four hits while retiring only two batters.

He is a fastball (54.4%) and cutter (18.8%) pitcher who also mixes in a slider (10.4%) and changeup (10.1%). But outside of his fastball (+5.4), he’s below average in runs allowed (-11.1) for each of those three other pitches in his arsenal.

While I wouldn’t have taken the Phillies’ moneyline based on the opening number, the odds are now down as low as -130, which is right in my wheelhouse.

The market has often tried unsuccessfully to fade the Phillies this season.

With a double-digit move on the moneyline that’s as high as 42 cents as a favorite, Philadelphia is 22-12 (64.7%), according to our Action Labs database.

Lastly, Wheeler is 11-3 (+6.62 units) on the moneyline when protecting a three-game winning streak, and this angle is on a 7-0 run.

The Phillies are starting to find their mojo, which could spell disaster for Nelson and company on Friday night.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.