Bet on high scoring game between the Phillies and Mets in Tuesday’s matinee matchup

A hair away from getting back to .500 in Monday’s series opener, the New York Mets suffered a painful loss after allowing two runs in the ninth in controversial fashion.

Now they have to somehow leave that all behind for a quick turnaround on Tuesday afternoon for Game 2 before heading to Philadelphia for another two-game set against their NL East rival on Wednesday.

The Mets, who are priced as +124 underdogs in Tuesday’s matchup, will send Jose Butto to the mound to take on Aaron Nola.

Nola offers a tough challenge to the Mets to be sure, but he might not have pitched quite as well as his 3.67 ERA suggests this season. He holds a 3.74 xERA and a 3.99 FIP.

The Padres and Braves are the only two teams the Phillies have faced that are currently above .500, which has offered Nola in particular a soft schedule of opponents. He has faced teams averaging 18th place in terms of offensive wRC+ versus right-handed pitching.

Nola’s Stuff+ rating is down to 98 this season, compared to 101 in 2023. His lesser stuff has been reflected by reduced whiff and chase rates, which has led to a declining strikeout percentage of 23.3. Over the last three outings, Nola has allowed a .268 xBA and a hard-hit rate of 41%.

It seems possible that the 2024 version of Nola comes down to Earth somewhat as he gets into a tougher slate of opponents.

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The Mets have hit to a 10th-best wRC+ of 104 versus right-handed pitching this season, with a K/BB ratio of 0.44.

Their process has looked sound over the last two outings in particular. Pete Alonso is 4-for-8 over his last two games, with seven hard-hit balls, including three in play with exit velocities of 109 mph or greater in Monday’s game.

Butto holds an xERA of 4.32 and a FIP of 4.08. He owns a Stuff+ rating of only 87 and a Location+ rating of 91. He has thrown strikes just 56% of the time this season, which is the second-lowest percentage among MLB pitchers who have thrown more than 14 innings.

The Phillies have hit to a wRC+ of 115 versus right-handed pitching. They will remain without Trea Turner and likely J.T. Realmuto, but should see Kyle Schwarber return after the slugger pinch-hit in the ninth inning of Monday’s win.

Nola could be slightly overvalued because of the way he’s dominated a soft schedule. The Mets have displayed a strong process at the plate recently, and could give him some problems.

The Phillies have a good chance to continue their dominant offensive play in a matchup versus Butto, and the Mets bullpen is not in great shape after Monday night’s game.

First pitch currently forecasts temperatures in the low 70s with 9-10 mph winds blowing out to left center.

In batter-friendly conditions, a total of 7.5 looks low for this particular matchup. Anything better than -110 is worthy of a play on the over.

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