Phillies vs. Orioles prediction: Bet on a high-scoring affair Tuesday night in Philadelphia

The Philadelphia Phillies played an infuriating brand of baseball on Monday, blowing several run creation and prevention chances on their way to a 3-2 series-opening loss to the Baltimore Orioles.

These 50/50 games are must-wins now. The National League Wildcard race is too close for comfort.

How should you bet Tuesday’s Orioles vs. Phillies matchup? You can bank on a high-scoring affair.

This starting pitching matchup leaves a lot to be desired.

The Orioles are an incredible baseball team, but they have holes in the rotation. Kyle Gibson is one of those holes.

Gibson has an ERA and expected ERA north of 4.50, driven by a lackluster batted-ball profile. He checks in as a well-below-average pitcher by FanGraphs’ Stuff+ — a stat that attempts to capture the “nastiness” of a pitch/arsenal based on its physical characteristics, like velocity, movement, release point — and has only one plus-pitch (slider).

Gibson, who pitched for the Phillies last season, can be an elite pitcher when the slider and other secondaries work. But he’s also a blow-up candidate on any given start, fueling a 5.89 ERA over the past two months.

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The Stuff+ model also rates Taijuan Walker as a below-average starting pitcher with one plus pitch (again, the slider).

Walker went on a mid-season tear once he found his correct pitch mix. A chaotic combination of splitters, sinkers and cutters led to five near-perfect starts (.84 ERA across 32 IP).

But the “chaotic combination” angle is usually unsustainable, and below-average stuff comes to bite you. Walker has allowed 10 earned runs in his past three starts (5.00 ERA over 18 IP).

Following these two poor starting pitchers are two thoroughly exhausted bullpens.

The Phillies are already shorthanded with Jose Alvarado on the IL, and Craig Kimbrel has pitched in back-to-back games (35 pitches overall).

Meanwhile, Baltimore’s Felix Bautista and Yennier Cano have pitched four times in the past six days. Danny Coulombe, Shintaro Fujinami and Clonel Perez have been used multiple times over the past week.

The Orioles are in a tough spot more generally, too. Many of their arms are reaching career-high usage this season, and it’s fair to ask if the bullpen is losing steam.

Neither lineup is hitting well. But given the starting pitching matchup and the state of the bullpens, run prevention will be tough across all nine innings.

And although neither team is hitting well, remember that stars litter both lineups: Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, Adley Rutschmann, and Gunnar Henderson.

I’d keep a close eye on Henderson. The rookie is breaking out behind better plate discipline and increased power numbers. He’s walking more, striking out less and pulling the ball more, leading to a .857 OPS in July.

Expect poor pitching in a high-scoring affair Tuesday night.

Moneyline: Orioles (+106) vs. Phillies (-124)

Spread: Orioles -1.5 (+162) vs. Phillies +1.5 (-196)

Total: Over 9.5 (-106) | Under 9.5 (-114)

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