Bet on the Twins’ money line over the first five innings against the Phillies in series opener

The Phillies, who avoided a three-game sweep against the Pirates with a 6-0 victory on Sunday, travel to Minnesota to take on a Twins team that have lost three straight games in the eighth inning or later.

With a record of 54-44, Minnesota’s lead in the wild-card race is now down to one game. The good news for Minnesota is it’ll have one of its best pitchers on the mound as it tries to snap its three-game losing streak.

Bailey Ober will get the start for the Twins, while the Phillies will counter with Ranger Suárez. Ober has yet to face Philadelphia in his career and that lack of familiarity could be critical to a fast start by the Twins.

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While there’s no denying Suárez (10-4) is having a tremendous season, he’s been less than stellar in his last four starts, giving up 19 runs (17 earned) in 21⅔ innings.

However, he hasn’t been entirely at fault. During those starts, he posted a 4.00 xFIP (expected fielding independent pitching), which suggests he probably pitched better than his 7.06 ERA.

One concern with the Phillies is their defense can sometimes be lacking. Philadelphia ranks 17th in turned double plays (74) and 20th in fielding percentage (.984).

Suárez needs to pitch to contact to be successful, considering his below-average Stuff+ rating of 83. Thus, if the Phillies struggle to make plays in the field behind Suarez, his impact as a quality pitcher is significantly reduced.

At 8-5, the advanced metrics suggest Ober has been better than his 4.14 ERA, given his expected 3.63 ERA and 3.78 xFIP. Moreover, the 6-foot-9 right-hander is in quite a groove over his last five starts, posting a 2.16 ERA and 2.84 xFIP.

While he and Suarez average around the same velocity (92 mph) on their fastballs, Ober generates 43% more swings and misses (13.7% vs. 9.6%).

His imposing frame can be deceptive to opposing hitters as he covers more distance when he strides toward home plate.

Since it can take a little while for hitters to get used to Ober’s delivery and release point, he does warrant some consideration in terms of value for the first five innings.

While Minnesota’s bullpen has generally been an asset this season, it has undoubtedly been culpable during the team’s recent skid. Thus, omitting the bullpen from the equation makes a lot of sense when considering a wager in this matchup.

Ober has also performed much better at home, with a 3.29 ERA compared to 4.67 on the road.

Philadelphia’s current roster is batting .167 against him in seven plate appearances, with an expected slugging percentage of .163. In comparison, Minnesota is batting .263 against Suarez in 21 plate appearances.

While Suárez’s recent form suggests that this game is much closer to a pick’em, a more sensible approach would be to back the Twins on the first-five-inning moneyline.

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