Bet on a slow start between Portugal and France in Friday’s Euro 2024 quarterfinal match

Portugal and France will meet for the fifth time at a European Championship, with the winner booking their ticket to the semifinals.

The winner of Friday’s match could very well have one hand on the Henri Delaunay Trophy. According to Opta Sports, France won the title twice after defeating Portugal in the Euros (3-2 in 1984, 2-1 in 2000).

History could also shine brightly on the Portuguese, as the last four teams that defeated France during the quarterfinals of a major tournament also went on to lift the trophy (Italy—1938 World Cup, Greece—2004 Euros, Spain—2012 Euros and Germany—2014 World Cup).

Thus, with so much at stake, it wouldn’t be entirely surprising if both teams adopted a conservative approach for Friday’s quarterfinal fixture.

Odds via FanDuel

The Seleção (7.7) trail only Spain (8.8) for the best expected goals (xG) mark at the 2024 Euros.

However, Portugal has yet to score since Bruno Fernandes’s goal in the 56th minute of its second game in the group stage against Turkey. The Portuguese have gone 267 minutes — almost the equivalent of three 90-minute matches without scoring a goal.

Perhaps more importantly, their talisman and all-time leading scorer, Cristiano Ronaldo (130 goals), has yet to find the net in the tournament.

The five-time Ballon d’Or winner has the most shot attempts of any player at the Euros and the second-highest xG (2.75) but still has nothing to show for his efforts. Nonetheless, manager Roberto Martinez still views Ronaldo as a critical part of his setup.

Even when Martinez opted to rotate his team for the final game in the group against Georgia, he kept Ronaldo in the starting lineup. The 39-year-old has played more minutes (366) than any player on the team outside of goalkeeper Diogo Costa.

While it’s hard to limit the minutes for a player of Ronaldo’s stature and ego, one can only wonder whether he can still have anything left in the tank with the games coming thick and fast.

» READ MORE: Portugal has good betting value to back in the Euros 2024 futures market

France’s performance at the Euros has probably been one of the biggest surprises — albeit for all the wrong reasons.

Les Bleus scored only three goals in four games, and only one of them by a French player. Their two other goals were unforced errors by the opposition, resulting in two own goals.

While manager Didier Deschamps has always been a pragmatic coach who relies on defensive principles, he’s also had world-class players at his disposal. That’s not to say that France suddenly lacks quality, but there is a bit of an imbalance with this current team.

France’s biggest issue is in the midfield, as it doesn’t really operate with a box-to-box ball-carrying midfielder who can link up with the attack. Paul Pogba used to fill that role for France, but injuries and a failed anti-doping test resulted in a four-year ban for the 31-year-old.

France’s starting midfield now consists of Antoine Griezmann (Atletico Madrid) on the left, N’Golo Kante (Al Ittihad) on the right and Aurelien Tchouameni (Real Madrid) playing in the middle. However, you could argue that Tchouameni and Kante are more defensive midfielders, while Griezmann is somewhat playing out of position on the left.

Griezmann is at his best when he plays centrally or on the forward line, where we saw him during the 2022 World Cup and 2020 Euros.

While France has managed to reach the quarterfinals of this tournament, it’s been more about surviving and advancing than displaying the real offensive threat that we’ve seen in recent competitions.

One area that France is particularly strong in is its backline. William Saliba (Arsenal) and Dayot Upamecano (Bayern Munich) are towering center-halves in the air while also possessing tremendous pace.

Jules Kounde (Barcelona) is an underrated fullback on the right side, and Theo Hernandez (AC Milan) helps give Griezmann extra cover on the left.

Opponents are having a tough time creating chances against this French defense that boasts the best xG per 90 minutes (0.66) in the tournament.

France’s biggest strength might be as a counter-attacking team, given its pace on the wings with Kylian Mbappe (Real Madrid) and Ousmane Dembele (PSG).

Therefore, I expect Portugal to have more of the ball as it tries to break down the French defense.

Lastly, according to Football Reference, Portugal (12.23) and France (12.23) rank second and third defensively with the fewest shot-creating actions allowed per 90 minutes.

This match has all the potential to be low-scoring, and with the under for the total juiced up to -188, a better option would be to back a scoreless result through the first 34 minutes of the contest.

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