Back Crystal Palace to pull off upset against Brighton in Thursday’s Premier League match

In most seasons you’d say that Crystal Palace are in a relegation battle. Sitting in 15th-place on 17 points from 17 matches and currently embroiled in a 1-3-6 (W-D-L) slide that stretches back to the end of September, the Eagles are fortunate that the teams at the bottom of the Premier League have been so poor in 2023-24 or else they’d feel a lot more pressure than they do as we head into the Festive Period.

Palace is a +225 home underdog on the three-way moneyline against Brighton in the Premier League’s lone match on Thursday.

The lack of wins are a massive concern for Roy Hodgson’s Crystal Palace, but the Eagles should feel OK with how they’ve played of late. Palace is coming off a 2-2 draw against Manchester City and were unfortunate to lose to Liverpool in their previous match. The Eagles created more expected goals (xG) than both City and Liverpool and actually boast a +1.1 xG difference in its last six contests.

After their own promising start things have begun to get turbulent for Brighton, too. The Seagulls are still a high-ceiling club that is capable of running any team off the pitch on their day, but they’ve found things a little more difficult since October started. Brighton has just two wins in its last 10 contests and their underlying numbers have also dipped quite a bit.

At their best, Brighton is a swashbuckling side that likes to create a frenetic pace. The Seagulls will always bet on themselves coming out ahead in back-and-forth, high-event contests. It would be surprising if this match goes in that directions since Palace wants to create the polar opposite game environment.

Palace is a well-organized, defensive side that has no qualms about sitting deep and forcing other teams to try and break them down. The Eagles won’t make anything easy on you and their style of play could turn this game into more of a coin-flip than these odds imply.

I like the value on Palace to continue their quietly decent form on Thursday and pull the upset.

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