Bet on Burnley to pull of massive upset Tuesday night against Wolverhampton

Wolverhampton Wanderers were expected to be in the thick of the relegation battle in the Premier League this season. Coming off an uninspiring performance in 2022-23, Wolves lost a handful of key players in the summer transfer window and never replaced them, which caused manager Julen Lopetegui to quit.

The vibes were bad, the roster looked thin and there was an expectation that the bottom of the Premier League would be stronger than it had been in season’s past. All of this added up to a bad situation for Wolves and they became a very popular bet to be relegated.

Not so fast.

Not only are Wolves in a pretty comfortable position with 15 points from their first 14 matches, but they’ve also collected wins against Manchester City and Tottenham to go along with draws against Liverpool and Newcastle.

Wolves look like they could be the giant killers in the Premier League this season. Too bad they’re playing 19th-place Burnley on Tuesday afternoon.

It’s a dangerous game to just put teams in buckets when it comes to betting and never adjust, but Wolverhampton seem to fit a certain profile this season. Wolves are a team you want to back as an underdog, but fade as a favorite. This isn’t all that surprising since we saw manager Gary O’Neil run a similar program at Bournemouth in 2022-23.

Wolverhampton is perfectly comfortable in bend-but-don’t-break scenarios. They give up plenty of shots and don’t take many themselves, but they do a reasonable job preventing big scoring chances against and creating good looks when they do get into good areas. Wolverhampton is also the best team in the Premier League when it comes to defending set pieces.

Burnley have been a mess this season, but they should feel right at home in this kind of match. The Clarets want to engage their opponents in a back-and-forth match and put pressure to force turnovers, but that is a dangerous game to play when you’re newly promoted into the Premier League. The cold reality is that Burnley just doesn’t have the pieces to outplay most teams in the top division.

That said, they should stand a decent chance of pulling it off against a Wolverhampton side that isn’t chock-full of ball-movers. If Burnley has its press working on Tuesday, they should have plenty of mistakes to feast on.

Burnley’s up-tempo, front-foot style allowed them to run riot in the Championship last season, but it’s been a disaster against the stronger sides in the Premier League. But against an opponent that is closer to them in talent level, the Clarets become an attractive option as an underdog.

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