Bet on Everton as underdog against Fulham in Tuesday’s Premier League match

Everton Football Club desperately needs three points on Tuesday afternoon. The Toffees are 0-1-3 (W-D-L) in their last four matches in the Premier League and, because of their 10-point deduction for breaching Financial Fair Play, are sitting just one point above the relegation zone with 17 games to go.

The Toffees are a +195 road underdog on the three-way money line against Fulham on Tuesday afternoon.

After starting the season by getting just one point from their first five matches, Everton went on a terrific run through the fall and up until the holidays. At the time there was an argument to be made that the Toffees were playing just as well as any other team in the Premier League. Unfortunately, Everton’s lack of depth would catch up to them when the fixtures started piling up and the Toffees struggled to get points.

Although Everton’s form has dipped due to fatigue, the team’s statistical profile remains strong. No team allows fewer big scoring chances than the Toffees, who also rank fourth in non-penalty expected goals allowed per 90 minutes. Everton’s defense should have a clear advantage going up against a Fulham attack that ranks 13th in creating big scoring chances, 16th in non-penalty expected goals for and 14th in shots per 90 minutes.

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The Cottagers have scored just two goals in their last five matches and were shutout in four of those contests.

Whether or not Everton will have enough in the tank going forward is a legitimate question for this match, but with their defensive form and Fulham’s attack floundering there isn’t much pressure on the Toffees to post a big number at Craven Cottage. The ask is not monumental for Everton in this spot.

If you take Everton’s 10-point deduction out of the equation they’d be three points ahead of Fulham and the Toffees boast the better statistical portfolio. There is a good case to be made that these odds are just too wide. Buy low on Sean Dyche’s Toffees on Tuesday.

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