Bet on a low scoring Big East matchup between Villanova and Providence on Saturday

Villanova can complete a sweep of the regular-season series against Providence when the Wildcats travel to take on the Friars Saturday night.

Villanova won the first meeting, 68-50, after leading by as many as 26 points at Finneran Pavilion.

While the Friars are an interesting option in this revenge spot, the spread (Providence -1.5) suggests this game is close to a coin flip.

In this preview, I’ll examine the profiles of both teams before sharing how an observation in Villanova’s recent form could point to some value with the total.

Odds via FanDuel

Despite being 16-12 on the year, Villanova (26th) landed in the top 30 of my power ratings when I ran the numbers. At first, I thought I was looking at some sort of formulaic error, but after checking KenPom’s numbers, I found he had the Wildcats in a very similar spot at No. 29.

Yet, looking at the resume, it becomes clearer why they’re ranked where they are in our power ratings

After all, bballnet.com shows they’re 32nd in the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) rankings, which factors in-game results, strength of schedule, game location, net offensive and defensive efficiency, and the quality of wins and losses.

Villanova is 3-8 in Quad 1 games with wins over North Carolina (21-6), Creighton (20-8) and Texas Tech (19-9). UNC is currently ranked ninth in the AP Top 25, while Creighton sits 12th. In the latest poll, TTU dropped out from No. 23 but received the second-highest number of votes (65) for teams outside the top 25.

Given the quality of Villanova’s Quad 1 wins, it has a decent shot of making the NCAA Tournament, as TeamRankings gives it a 67% chance to receive an at-large bid.

That’s pretty impressive, considering the Wildcats are 2-3 in Quad 3 games with bad losses to Saint Joseph’s (96 NET ranking), Drexel (124) and Pennsylvania (210).

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At 9-8, Providence has the same conference record as Villanova but trails the Wildcats in the standings because of the head-to-head loss.

The Friars actually have a better overall record at 18-10, and they’re 5-7 in Quad 1 games. Their best wins came against Marquette (ranked fifth) and Creighton.

However, Providence has a 56 NET ranking and a lesser chance (52.1%) of receiving an at-large bid, per TeamRankings. The good news for the Friars is they still have some games remaining to help improve their resume.

Nonetheless, I have Villanova ahead of Providence (50th) in my power ratings, while KenPom has the Friars 55th.

One of my biggest criticisms of the Friars is they struggle to finish at the rim. Per ShotQuality, they rank 204th in this category.

In the early February meeting, Villanova limited Providence to just 16 points in the paint and 29.4% from the floor. Defensively, the Wildcats rank 16th in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency metric, allowing 95.4 points per 100 possessions.

Much of their success comes from being able to protect the rim, as TeamRankings has them 33rd in opponent field goal percentage (41%).

Thus, given the Friars’ struggles to convert easier opportunities at the rim, I like Villanova’s chances to affect this game defensively.

The underlying stats show the Wildcats playing a much more controlled game of late.

Villanova averages 67.8 possessions on the season, but that number is down to 63.1 over its last three games.

To average more than four fewer possessions is a pretty big dropoff, and what’s interesting is that the Wildcats faced three teams – Butler, UConn and Georgetown – that all play at a faster pace with at least a 50% cover rate for over bettors.

It’s entirely possible that Wildcats coach Kyle Neptune is opting for a bit more control as his team chases an NCAA Tournament appearance.

Using the Killer Sports database along with the odds for this game, I took a look at how the under performs in this spot with a total of fewer than 130 points when a short favorite (two points or less) is in a revenge spot off a loss of 18 or more points.

Sure enough, dating back to the 2017 season, the under is on a 7-0 run in this spot.

Based on those findings and my assessment of Villanova playing a slower tempo, the under is the easy bet here.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.